CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Disappointing day in the corn market as sellers stepped aggressively back into the corn market. The strong selling pressure eliminated the gains in the Dec corn contract last week and a wetter tone in some forecast and technical selling pressured the market.
• Dec corn futures failed to push through the psychological 450 price area. The failure at this level triggered selling pressure as prices continue to drop through levels of support. The weak technical close opens the door for additional selling pressure going into Tuesday.
• Long range weather models turn heavier with precipitation from the end of June into early July, which countered some drier weather talk last week.
• USDA will release crop progress and condition ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for 97% of the corn crop to be planted. Conditions ratings have been below average, but improved weather is expected to boost the rating to 70% good/excellent, up 1% from last week.
• USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday. Last week, US exporters shipped 1.657 MMT (65.2 mb) of corn.  This total was above market expectations. Current corn shipments are up 29% over last year. The current shipment pace is ahead of the pace to reach the USDA marketing year target by approximately 160 mb.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower with the deferred contracts posting the larger losses in general weakness across the grain complex. July futures remain above all major moving averages and the 100-day moving average is now acting as support. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
• Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections better than expected at 20.1 mb for the week ending June 5. Year to date soybean inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 81 mb which was up from 72 mb the previous week.
• Drought conditions are still persistent across the soybean belt but were seen shrinking by 1% to 16%. This compares to just 2% during the same period last year.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 28,096 contracts which left them with a long position of 8,601 contracts. They sold 21,998 contracts of oil and 2,932 contracts of meal.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat began the week with double digit losses for all three classes by the close as markets took a risk off posture. A combination of harvest pressure and a lower close for Matif wheat added weight to the market today. Additionally, rainfall anticipated this week in the US northern plains as well as for the second week of the outlook in China’s wheat growing areas added to weakness. Australian wheat growing regions received beneficial rains over the weekend too.
• Weekly wheat inspections totaled 10.7 mb with 4.5 mb of that total for the 24/25 marketing year. For 25/26 total inspections are now at 6 mb, down 43% from last year and running well under the USDA’s estimated pace. They are forecasting 25/26 wheat exports will reach 800 mb, down 3% from the year prior.
• SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian 2025 wheat production by 1.8 mmt to 82.8 mmt. For reference the USDA is using a figure of 83 mmt. Additionally, IKAR has said Russian wheat export values finished last week at $225 per mt, unchanged from the week before.
• This Thursday will feature the monthly WASDE report – the average pre-report estimate of 2025 US wheat production comes in at 1.924 bb, up from 1.921 bb in the May report. Of that total, winter wheat is expected to account for 1.389 bb vs 1.382 bb last month.
• Analyst group APK-Inform has reduced their estimate of Ukraine’s 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 mmt. This is said to be mainly due to smaller corn and wheat harvests. The wheat production estimate in particular was revised down 0.1 mmt from last month to 21.7 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were mixed among 2025 contracts. The largest gain on the day came from the November contract which improved 19 cents to close at $18.98.
• Spot cheese was 1.1250 cents higher on the day to $1.87/lb. Whey lost just 0.25 cents to close at $0.5750/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were mostly weaker on light volume trading. August through December contracts saw losses between 5 and 21 cents.
• Spot butter lost half a penny to close at $2.5425/lb while powder gained 0.25 cents to close at $1.2650/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill