CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished Thursday’s session with mixed to mostly higher trade. Support came from short covering and a firm demand tone, bolstered by solid export sales reported by the USDA Thursday morning. The market remains in oversold territory, prompting some positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA July WASDE report.
• The USDA is set to release its next WASDE and Crop Production report on Friday. While corn yield estimates are likely to remain unchanged until the August update, the trade is watching closely for revisions to planted acreage and old crop demand. Current export sales of old crop corn are running ahead of USDA projections for the marketing year, leading analysts to anticipate potential demand adjustments that could reduce old crop ending stocks and tighten new crop carryout expectations.
• The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending July 3, U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.262 MMT (49.7 MB) for the 2024-25 marketing year and 888,600 MT (35.0 MB) for the 2025-26 marketing year. These totals were above analyst expectations for both years. With today’s reported sales, old crop total commitments are at 2.731 BB with the USDA target of 2.675 BB for the marketing year.
• The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, raised the forecast for this year Brazil corn on their July report. CONAB expects this year’s corn crop to reach 131.97 MMT, up 3.721 MMT from June. The agency also raised Brazil corn exports by 2 MMT from their June estimates.
• On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil imports to go into effect on August 1. The announcement pushed the Brazilian real currency to its lowest levels since the first of June versus the U.S. dollar. The break in currency value reduces the cost on Brazil grain products on the export market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, breaking a 3-day losing streak which has seen August futures lose 43 cents for the week so far. Traders may have been covering short positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report, and export sales were within expectations. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.
• Pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s USDA update estimate old crop soybean ending stocks at 358 mb which would be up from June’s 350 mb, and new crop 2025/26 stocks at 302 mb which would compare to 295 mb in June.
• Today’s export sales report saw an increase in soybean sales of 18.5 million bushels, which was up 9% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Egypt, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 14.5 mb were above the 14.1 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
• While prices recovered slightly today, soybean meal prices have pushed lower as the increase in crush demand for oil has produced an excess supply of soybean meal on the global market.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in the green across all three classes, boosted by sharply higher Paris milling wheat futures, worsening drought conditions in U.S. wheat areas, and expectations for lower U.S. production on tomorrow’s WASDE report. There may have also been a short covering technical bounce with futures having recently become oversold.
• The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 16.4 mb, which was above the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA 25/26 export goal of 825 mb. Export commitments for 25/26 have reached 285 mb, which is up 9% from last year.
• The average pre-report estimate for 25/26 all wheat production is pegged at 1.903 bb, down from 1.921 in June and 1.971 last year. U.S. 24/25 wheat ending stocks are expected to rise from 841 mb to 848, while 25/26 is expected to decline from 898 mb to 893. Global 24/25 wheat carryout is anticipated to come in 0.3 mmt higher than last month at 264.3 mmt, and for 25/26 is expected to rise 1.9 mmt to 264.7 mmt.
• CONAB has reduced their estimate of Brazilian wheat production by 0.4 mmt to 7.8 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a production figure of 8 mmt. Meanwhile, China is also reported to have lowered their wheat production forecast by 0.1% to 138.16 mmt. The USDA’s projection is sitting at 142 mmt, though this could be adjusted on tomorrow’s report.
• According to the USDA, as of July 8, an estimated 26% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, which is up 2% from last week. During the same period, spring wheat increased 6% to 35% of the area in drought. This is well above the July 9, 2024 reading of just 7%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were higher this morning but got knocked down by the spot trade. August finished down 6 cents at $17.86.
• The block/barrel average was 1.3750 cents lower to $1.6975/lb, while whey fell 2.75 cents on 6 loads traded to move to $0.5625/lb.
• Class IV futures were unchanged across the board today, despite a nice spot butter trade.
• Spot powder was a quarter cent lower today, but butter was up 2.75 cents to move to $2.59/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg