CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• After setting new lows in Sunday night trade, corn futures staged a strong reversal Monday, closing above Friday’s high in an encouraging technical rebound.
• Friday’s report pegged old crop corn carryout at 1.340 billion bushels — the lowest in four years if realized. That stands in sharp contrast to prices, which are among the lowest seen in the past five years.
• USDA raised Brazil’s 2025 corn production estimate by 2 MMT to 132 MMT, aligning with Conab’s update the day prior. This bumped up global corn stocks (excluding China), though overall inventories remain near 12-year lows, keeping the global supply picture historically tight.
• Over the weekend, the Trump administration announced a 30% tariff on both the EU and Mexico starting August 1. The news is particularly significant for corn, as Mexico is the top U.S. buyer. The move adds fresh uncertainty to a market already weighed down by strong crop prospects and multi-year low prices.
• Short-term weather remains favorable as pollination advances, with weekly crop progress expected to show steady conditions and development tracking close to the five-year average.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower in bear spreading action with the bulk of losses in the front months. Overnight, November soybeans fell to $9.98-1/4 but recovered throughout the day. Prospects of continued wet weather have pressured the market. Soybean meal was lower but soybean oil higher to end the day.
• Biofuel policy support continues to provide a bullish backdrop, with USDA projecting a 5% increase in 2025/26 soybean crush, driven by rising demand for renewable fuels. This is expected to support soybean oil prices, though meal values may remain under pressure due to rising supply.
• Highlights from Friday’s WASDE report saw predictions for the 25/26 soybean crop decreased slightly from last month’s guess. Ending stocks for 24/25 were unchanged at 350 mb and ending stocks for 25/26 were called higher at 310 mb vs 295 mb last month. Yields were unchanged, new crop bean exports were lowered, but soybean crush was increased to 2.54 from 2.49
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 6,641 contracts which left them with a net short position of 6,216 contracts. They sold 1,670 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 37,741 contracts and bought 459 contracts of meal leaving them short 131,479 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes Monday, pressured by last week’s higher-than-expected spring wheat production estimate, which offset reductions to winter wheat. The spring wheat yield forecast of 51.7 bpa would be the second highest on record if realized.
• Weekly wheat inspections totaled 16.2 mb, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 83.9 mb, down 3% from last year and lagging the pace needed to reach USDA’s 850 mb export projection.
• Russian export activity continues to rise, with IKAR reporting wheat values up $4 to $229/mt last week, and SovEcon estimating weekly exports at 160,000 mt, up 60,000 mt from the prior week. Meanwhile, former President Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Russian goods if no peace deal is reached within 50 days.
• Weather remains a concern globally, with persistent drought in key wheat areas of Australia, and parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada seeing limited moisture. Both regions face yield risks as their crops approach reproductive stages.
• In the EU, grain production is forecast up 6.9% year over year, according to Copa-Cogeca, with total output seen at 275.2 mmt. While wheat production is expected to rise, durum wheat is projected to fall 32% from last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were down to start the new week with the August contract losing 33 cents to move to $17.43.
• Spot cheese was down a penny to $1.6575/lb while spot whey was unchanged.
• Class IV futures were mostly unchanged besides the August and October contracts closing down 3 cents.
• Spot butter fell a penny to $2.58/lb while powder started the week off with no change from Friday.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty