CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures posted mild gains on Tuesday, and buying support from wheat and weather concerns helped support the market. September corn gained 3 ¼ cents to 452 ¾, while December corn added 2 ¼ cents to 475 ¼.
• Wheat futures posted moderate gains on Tuesday, providing spillover support to the corn market. Prices were supported by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with a decline in U.S. spring wheat crop ratings, which raised concerns over global wheat supplies.
• USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report showed the U.S. corn crop rated 67% good-to-excellent as of July 19, down 1 percentage point from the previous week but still 2 points above the five-year average of 65%. Of the 18 major corn-producing states, crop conditions improved in nine and declined in nine. With the crop entering more advanced stages of development, upcoming weather will play a key role in determining whether conditions improve or deteriorate further.
• With overall strong crop ratings, some analyst groups using weather data in their yield models are forecasting August corn yield to be above the 183 bu/acre trendline yield based on June and July weather.
• Expectations are for an above-normal temperature trend over the corn belt with average to below average rainfall. This forecast helped trigger some weather premiums into the market to start the week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower following an improvement in crop ratings, but prices came back from lows earlier in the day. Export sales to China remain supportive to prices. August soybeans lost 6-1/2 cents to $12.19-1/2 while November lost 3-1/2 cents to $12.22-3/4. August soybean meal gained $3.2o to $326.70 while August soybean oil lost 0.38 cents to 74.30 cents despite gains in crude oil.
• Yesterday, the USDA reported sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 26/27 marketing year and 110,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 26/27 marketing year. These Chinese purchases have been very supportive and contribute to the agreement to buy 25 mmt this year.
• The 6-10 day weather forecast for the Corn Belt shows above average temperatures and below average precipitation. There are concerns that lack of moisture could continue into August which could hurt yields, especially paired with hot weather.
• The Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings improve one point from last week to 66% good to excellent, which was 2 points above the average trade guess. This compares to 68% a year ago but is above the 5-year average. 66% of the crop is blooming and 32% is setting pods.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After trading both sides of neutral, wheat closed higher across each class. With Russian exports still restricted and energy markets trading higher, US wheat shook off the lower MATIF close. In the September contract, Chicago gained 4 cents to 678, Kansas City was up 9-1/4 cents at 733, and MIAX rallied 12 cents to 704-1/4.
• According to yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, the US winter wheat crop harvest advanced 7% on the week to 74% complete. This is ahead of last year’s 72% pace and the five-year average of 71%. As for spring wheat, the crop was rated 53% good to excellent, a drop of 5% from the week prior. Additionally, 86% of the crop is headed, in line with last year, but 1% above average.
• SovEcon has reduced their estimate of Russia’s wheat production by 0.6 mmt to 88.3 mmt. For reference, this is now just below the USDA’s forecast of 88.5 mmt.
• The Wheat Quality Council’s yearly spring wheat crop tour began today in North Dakota. While results are not yet available, expectations are for dry conditions and some slight disease pressure. The tour, which also goes through South Dakota and Minnesota, will conclude on Thursday.
• According to CONAB, as of July 19, an estimated 96.9% of Brazil’s wheat area has been planted. This is similar to the five-year average. Additionally, as of July 16, CONAB is estimating Brazil’s 2026 wheat production will reach 6.03 mmt. If realized, this would be a decline of 23.5% from the previous season, and also the lowest production since 2020.  

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The block/barrel average cheese price was bid up 1.50c on Tuesday to $1.64375/lb, which is a new high of year.
• Class III milk responded positively to the cheese rally, as most futures closed up double digits and recovered some of what was lost on Monday.
• The powder market fell 2c to $1.43/lb. This is it’s lowest close since February 2026.
• Nearby Class IV milk made new lows for the move on the powder weakness.
• The Global Dairy Trade auction was bid 1.50% higher overall, although the cheese market fell 6.50% and made 5-year lows.

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Author

Brandon Doherty