CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures closed higher today, supported by recent trade deal announcements and technical support levels. September futures closed back above the $4.00 level while the December contract looks to have found support near $4.15.
• Weekly export sales for corn came in at 54 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 2.760 billion bushels, which is up 27% from a year ago.
• The USDA reported a correction of a previous export sale of 135k mt of U.S. corn to China. That sale was actually sold to South Korea, not China. Along with that sale the USDA also announced the sale of 285k mt of U.S. corn sold to unknown destinations.
• Weather will continue to be the main driver of price action for corn futures. Recent rainfall across the corn belt has pressured prices recently. The 8-14 day outlook shows additional precipitation could be on the way for much of the Western belt, which may add some more downside risk for corn prices.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were higher to end the day after trading either side of unchanged throughout the session. Export sales were not particularly supportive, but ongoing trade deals both closed and still in negotiations were supportive. Expectations for large yields have kept prices from rallying on export news.
• While soybean meal was lower to end the day, soybean oil was higher following crude oil. The general trend over the last few months has been gains in soybean oil and decreased in soybean meal prices as the country shifts to stronger demand for biofuels. This leads to larger soybean crush numbers but also creates a glut of soybean meal.
• Today’s export sales were at the low end of trade expectations with increases of 5.9 million bushels in 24/25, and an increase of 8.8 million bushels for 25/26. Primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Egypt. Last week’s export shipments of 13.3 mb were below the 17.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.
• Expectations for a large crop and softening demand continue to weigh on new-crop balance sheets. Some analysts project 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks could rise to 510 million bushels — well above the USDA’s July estimate of 310 million — amid weaker domestic demand and export uncertainty.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat saw a mixed close today, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts ending steady to higher, while Minneapolis posted modest losses. A lack of fresh, market-moving news and another negative session for Matif wheat likely limited upside potential for the U.S. market.
• The USDA reported an increase of 26.2 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 28.0 mb, which exceeded the 16.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their goal of 850 mb. Total 25/26 wheat sales commitments have reached 329 mb, which is up 12% from last year.
• The second day of the Wheat Quality Council crop tour found an average North Dakota spring wheat yield of 47.1 bpa after sampling 139 fields. This is down 12% from the 53.7 bpa found on the second day a year ago. The USDA is estimating North Dakota’s spring wheat yield at 59 bpa.
• According to their food secretary, India’s domestic wheat price and supply are at “comfortable levels”, with no need for the government to sell from state reserves into the open market. It is worth noting that India has done this in the past to combat inflation and high food prices.
• Over the past couple of weeks, decent rainfall across the southern Canadian Prairies has helped ease early-season dryness and reduce crop stress. As a result, spring wheat production estimates have remained steady.
• The Argentine ministry of agriculture has reported national wheat planting at 92% complete versus 93% at this time last year. Additionally, recent rains and improved soil moisture have led to some increased production estimates, with one private firm projecting a 1% increase in the crop to 20.2 mmt. For reference, the USDA is estimating Argentina’s wheat harvest at 20 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk was higher today, trying to recover from the post-Milk Production Report weakness.
• Spot cheese was up 0.1250 cents today, its first move for the week. Spot whey enters Friday down 3.25 cents for the week.
• Class IV action was two-sided today but there was some selling pressure in the deferred months.
• Spot butter was unchanged today but is down 9.25 cents on the week. Spot powder gained less than a penny today.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill