CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• After trading on both sides of unchanged in the overnight session, the corn market gained some footing with solid new crop export sales and carry over support from the soybean market to close in the green for the fourth day in a row.
• This week’s export sales for corn showed an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 29.3 mb for 24/25. While old crop sales were down 24% on the week and at the low end of trade expectations, new crop sales came in at the top end of expectations and lent support to the deferred contracts.
• Last week’s export shipments of 47.6 mb exceeded the 42.2 million bushels needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. The primary destinations were Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.
• LSEG Ag Research updated its estimate of Brazil’s 23/24 total corn production as the safrinha corn harvest begins to wrap up, raising it 1% to 120.1 mmt. This compares to CONAB at 115.9 mmt and the USDA’s latest estimate of 122 mmt.
• As we enter the end of July, weather forecasts are turning less friendly for crop development for the first part of August as temperatures look to trend well above average, with near term above normal moisture in the ECB turning drier, along with below normal moisture in the WCB. While most of the corn crop is in overall good condition, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher for the third time this week with November futures now up 43 ½ cents since Monday. Today’s Export Sales report was not particularly friendly, but a flash sale was reported this morning to unknown destinations. Soybean meal led the complex higher today with the September contract up 2.48%. Soybean oil was mixed with the front months lower and deferred months higher.
• Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 3.3 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 30.5 mb for 24/25. This was within the range of estimates, but sales for 23/24 were down 61% from the previous week and 63% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 13.5 mb were below the 15.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Indonesia.
• While soybean sales were on the softer side this week, sales of soybean meal were very strong which explains today’s big gains in meal futures. 258,100 mt of old crop meal and 520,900 mt of new crop meal were sold last week with the Philippines showing up as the largest buyer of old crop while the new crop purchases were made by unknown buyers.
• The weather has been beneficial up until this point, but forecasts are turning dry and very hot heading into August which will be crucial for pod fill. Little impact is expected this week, but the GFS model shows temperatures potentially reaching as high as 113 degrees in some parts of the Midwest.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across all three categories, led by Chicago futures. Continued losses in Paris milling wheat futures provided no support, and US wheat struggled to find footing despite higher corn and soybean prices.
• The USDA reported an increase of 11.4 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10 mb fell below the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 825 mb. Sales commitments so far are at 295 mb for 24/25 which is up 48% year on year.
• Day two of the Spring Wheat Quality Council’s wheat tour again found promising conditions. In north central North Dakota, they found a yield potential of 53.7 bpa, compared with 45.7 bpa last year. However, it was noted that some head blight was present which could affect final yields.
• According to the USDA, drought is increasing in spring wheat areas. As of July 23, 15% of US spring wheat crop acres were experiencing drought, compared to 12% the week prior. The heat and dryness in parts of Canada and the US northern Plains could affect final spring wheat yields.
• As reported by the International Grains Council, FOB export values increased in the US and Europe but fell in Russia to $219 per mt, which keeps Russia the export leader for now. It is worth noting that US SRW wheat has become more competitive and is at a $21 per mt discount when compared with French FOB offers.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After closing higher the previous three days, the nearby Class III contracts faced double digit losses on Thursday. August dipped to $20.23.
• Spot cheese lost 0.75 cents today to close at $1.95/lb, entering Friday still up 6.125 cents on the week. Spot whey was unchanged after hitting a 25-month high.
• The only Class IV mover in the remaining 2024 contracts was the September contract, which closed 11 cents higher.
• Spot butter gained a quarter cent on a continued quiet week while powder gave up a half cent to close at $1.23/lb.
• Overall, today’s Cold Storage report could be seen as bullish for Class III and bearish on Class IV. Please see below for more details.

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Author

John Heinberg