CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures surged higher after the 3-day holiday weekend as weather forecasts are looking at warmer and drier conditions going into the middle/end of July. The forecasts triggered a short covering rally. September corn gained 15 ¼ cents to 438 ¼, while December rallied 16 ¼ cents to 457 ¾.
• Since First Notice day of the July contract, the corn market has posted a nice recovery rally. December corn has added 32 cents in the past four sessions. The strong technical price close on Monday leaves more potential upside room going into the night session.
• USDA released corn export inspections on Monday morning. For the week ending July 2, U.S. exporters shipped 1.642 MMt of corn. This was slightly above market expectations. Total export shipments are running 25% ahead of last year’s pace, and export sales are at the highest totals ever for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• After widespread rainfall across most regions of the Corn Belt over the July 4 weekend, weather forecasts are looking at the potential development of a heat ridge over the western Corn Belt.  The length and extent of the weather pattern are still unknown. Most of the U.S. corn crop will be moving into pollination over the next couple of weeks.
• Hot and dry weather has made an impact on the European corn crop. Recent crop ratings have tumbled to a 13-year low at 58% Good/Excellent. This rating is down 26% in the past two weeks.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher as a result of a hot and dry weather forecast over the next 14 days and optimism over Chinese purchases. August soybeans gained 47-3/4 cents to $11.84, while November gained 44-1/2 cents to $11.92-1/4 and is now above all major moving averages. August soybean meal gained $7.40 to $312.90 and August soybean oil was up 0.99 cents to 67.76 cents.
• Today’s export inspections report was within average trade estimates for soybeans totaling 19.4 million bushels as of July 2. This was above last week’s inspections and higher than this time a year ago. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 1.391 bb, which is down 18% from the previous year.
• In Brazil, exports of soybeans reached 14.5 mmt in June, which was a record high for the month. Significantly, non-Chinese shipments made up the bulk of exports at 37%, while exports to China were down by 1% from the previous year. This could be showing that China is giving the U.S. some business.
• StoneX Brazil raised their soybean crop production forecast slightly higher to 182.1 MMT from 181.8 MMT last month. The firm noted a slightly improved yield as the reason for the boost in production.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with double-digit gains in all three classes despite a shortage of fresh news. However, today’s massive jump in soybean prices aided the wheat complex, as did falling French crop conditions. In the September contract, Chicago rallied 14-1/4 cents to 614, Kansas City climbed 11-1/4 cents to 649-3/4, and MIAX gained 10-3/4 cents to 629-1/2.  
• Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at just 4.9 mb. This brings total 26/27 inspections to 55 mb, down 18% from last year. Inspections are currently running below the USDA’s estimated pace; exports in 26/27 are forecasted at 775 mb, down 15% from the year prior.
• The French wheat harvest is reported to be 26% complete, and crop conditions fell another 6% on the week to 68% good to very good. It is estimated that their soft wheat production will range between 31.5 to 32.0 mmt, down from 33.4 mmt harvested last year.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine wheat planting is now 81% complete, up roughly 15% from the week before. About 6.5 million hectares are expected to be sown in total versus 6.7 million last year.  
• In their tender, Saudi Arabia is said to have purchased 661,000 mt of wheat for September and October shipment. The price paid ranged between $267.72 and $272.75/mt on a CNF basis.
• IKAR has reported that Russian wheat export values ended last week at $226/mt, which is a decline of $5 from the week prior. In related news, Rusagrotrans is estimating Russia’s July wheat exports between 1.9 and 2.2 mmt. This would be up as much as 18% compared to July 2025. And for reference, June exports reached 2.3 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The six remaining Class III contracts in 2026 started the new week off with small gains, ranging from 2 to 4 cents.
• Spot cheese settled 1.25 cents higher at $1.46625/lb while whey fell a penny to $0.6750/lb.
• August Class IV futures gained 20 cents today on 42 contracts traded. September through November were higher while most others were unchanged.
• The Class IV products split with a 1.25 cents gain in butter and a half cent loss in powder.

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Author

John Heinberg