CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong selling pressure in the corn markets to start the week as the December corn market posted a new contract low close on the session. Corn futures posted double-digit losses, starting from the open on Sunday night.
• Last week’s pre-holiday short covering rally faded after President Trump’s July 3 speech failed to deliver on rumored trade deal announcements, disappointing markets.
• Trump also threatened 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea by August 1 unless they open more to U.S. exports—concerning given their role as key U.S. corn buyers.
• Weekly export inspections remain strong as U.S. exporters shipped 1.491 MMT (58.7 mb) of corn for the week ending July 3. This was near the top end of expectations and total corn exports are running 30% ahead of last year.
• Weather forecasts remain friendly for corn development going into later July. Expectations are for USDA crop rating to maintain the 73% good/excellent rating on Monday’s crop condition report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after gapping lower last night and continuing to fade into today’s close. Traders had anticipated a trade announcement from President Trump on Friday when he spoke in Iowa, but none was announced. Both soybean meal and oil were lower despite higher crude prices.
• The announcement of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea added pressure to grain and equity markets. Ongoing favorable weather and crop conditions, combined with fears of large ending stocks and weaker exports, fueled bearish sentiment.
• Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections within trade estimates but towards the higher end of guesses at 14.3 million bushels for the week ending July 3. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.700 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year.
• Argentina has now completed its soybean harvest and has also updated its production, citing better-than-expected yields. The country is said to have produced 50.3 mmt, which is slightly above last year’s 50.2 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower alongside the broader grain complex, though losses were less severe than corn and soybeans. Disappointment over the lack of a trade announcement from President Trump and continued favorable U.S. weather weighed on prices.
• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 16 mb, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 64.6 mb, up 1% from last year and on pace to meet USDA’s 825 mb export projection.
• Indonesia signed an MoU with the U.S. to purchase at least 800,000 mt of wheat in 2025 and 1 mmt annually through 2030. As the world’s second-largest wheat importer, this could support long-term demand.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $225 per mt, which is up $3 from the week before. SovEcon also reported that Russia’s wheat exports last week totaled just 100,000 mt compared with 190,000 mt the previous week. In related news, the Russian ag ministry removed the wheat export tax between July 9-15, attempting to increase sales.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported Argentine wheat plantings for 25/26 have reached 78.2% complete. This is up just 5.5% from last week, as progress has been said to be delayed by recent rains.
• The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is projecting 25/26 global grain production at a record 2.93 billion tons. Total grain stocks are estimated at 889.1 mmt, up from 869.5 mmt last year. Wheat stocks in particular are forecast at 321.0 mmt, which is up 11 mmt from the June estimate.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were weaker to start the week with all 2025 contracts trading lower except for the December contract which improved 6 cents to $18.70.
• Spot cheese fell slightly on Monday to $1.6975/lb while the whey market was unchanged at $0.6075/lb.
• Spot butter reached its highest level since November 15th at $2.62/lb. Powder improved 0.25 cents to $1.2625/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were seen improving on Monday on better demand in the butter market. September and November contracts led the way higher, each gaining 15 cents on the day to $19.70 and $20.02 respectively.

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Author

John Heinberg