CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended slightly higher Wednesday, pausing after posting new contract lows overnight. Prices attempted to rebound but failed to spark meaningful short covering, with consolidation at recent lows.
• Managed money continues to expand its net short position, with no immediate catalyst in sight to prompt a reversal.
• The USDA will release the next WASDE/Crop Production report on Friday. While corn yield is likely to remain unchanged until August, updates to acreage and old crop demand could shift new crop carryout estimates.
• Ethanol production rose to 1.085 million barrels/day last week, ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual corn use target. An estimated 104.9 mb of corn was used, up from the prior week and year.
• Brazil is still harvesting a record supply of second crop corn. The Brazil corn market is concerned with logistic issues, and a softening demand base, which has weighed on global corn prices as a possible record U.S. corn crop develops.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day and have now lost 46-1/2 cents for the week in the August contract as good weather and crop ratings incentivize funds to continue selling. Both soybean meal and oil were lower, but bean oil led the complex lower.
• Sellers are in control of the soybean market as prices pushed through key levels of resistance during Wednesday’s session. The combination of softening demand tone, a 9-year low in soybean meal prices, and growing global supplies lead the market. Managed funds were still holding a small net long position in soybeans in the last Commitment of Traders report.
• Pre-report estimates for Friday’s USDA update peg old crop soybean ending stocks at 358 mb (up from June’s 350 mb), and new crop 2025/26 stocks at 302 mb (vs. 295 mb in June).
• Soybean meal prices push lower as the increase crush demand for oil has produced an excess supply of soybean meal on the global market. As of today’s close, front month soybean meal prices close at their lowest levels since February 2016.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed mixed Wednesday—Chicago posted minor losses, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw modest gains. With winter wheat harvest now past halfway, pressure may be easing. A firmer close in Matif wheat also offered support.
• The Ukrainian Grain Union is estimating their nation’s 2025 wheat production at 22.4 mmt. This compares with the USDA at 23 mmt. In related news, grain infrastructure in Ukraine is reportedly not damaged after another round of Russian drone attacks. These strikes came shortly after the US resumed aid to Ukraine.
• South-central Canada remains dry, with scattered showers in the forecast, but overall moisture remains insufficient—posing risks to spring wheat now in its reproductive phase.
• According to LSEG, between October 2024 and May 2025, Australian wheat exports totaled about 15 mmt, up 2% year-over-year. They are estimating 24/25 total exports at 22.5 mmt, while pegging 25/26 shipments at 23 mmt. In general, Australian wheat exports are said to be encountering growing competition from the Northern Hemisphere, as well as weaker Chinese demand.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures ended the day mixed, with July gaining 9 cents to settle at $17.32, while September slipped 1 cent to close at $18.55.
• Spot cheese posted another gain, rising 0.1250 cents to close at $1.71125/lb. In contrast, spot whey moved lower, losing 1.50 cents to settle at $0.5900/lb.
• Class IV milk futures showed midweek weakness, with August down 15 cents to close at $19.21, and September slipping 10 cents to settle at $19.60.
• Spot butter closed 5.50 cents lower at $2.5625/lb, while nonfat dry milk (powder) held steady at $1.2675/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty