CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw selling pressure on Tuesday as the front month September futures lost 4 ½ cents to 379 ½, and December futures traded 3 ¼ lower to 403 ¼.
• The Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported South Dakota corn yields at 174.2 bpa (vs. 156.5 last year, 144.1 three-year avg) and Ohio yields at 185.7 bpa (vs. 183.3 last year, 180.5 thirty-year avg). Nebraska and Indiana results are due this evening.
• Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is 89.3% complete, up from 83% last week. Despite a record crop, farmer selling remains light due to low prices.
• U.S. corn holds a strong price advantage, roughly 30 cents/bu under Brazil, keeping U.S. exports competitive as Brazilian farmers withhold sales.
• The September corn options expire on Friday. The corn market may trade choppy going into options expiration as price flow to large areas of open interest for both September puts and calls.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures fell Tuesday after failing to break key resistance at $10.50 in November contracts. September closed 7 ¾ cents lower at $10.13, while November lost 7 ½ cents to $10.33 ¾.
• USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 228,606 MT (8.4 mb) for 2025/26. Despite the sale, new-crop soybean sales remain at a 10-year low for this point in the season.
• Pro Farmer found soybean pod counts above last year in both Ohio and South Dakota. Ohio averaged 1,287.28 pods per 3’x3′ plot (vs. 1,229.93 in 2024), while South Dakota came in at 1,188.45 (vs. 1,025.89 in 2024).
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions unchanged from last week at 68% good to excellent with 95% of the crop blooming and 82% setting pods, both on par with the 5-year average. Forecasts remain wet through the end of the month.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed lower in sympathy with lower corn and soybeans, in a broad risk off trade today. September Chi lost 4-1/4 cents to 498-1/2, while September KC lost 6-3/4 to 499-1/2. MIAX contracts did post small gains, despite an increase for the spring wheat crop conditions; the September contract gained 3/4 cent to 568-1/2.
• USDA reported winter wheat harvest at 94% complete, up 4 points from last week. Spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 50% good/excellent, while harvest jumped 20 points to 36% complete.
• Heavy rainfall in Argentina over the past 24 hours has boosted soil moisture for winter wheat, though excessive wetness is raising root rot concerns in some regions. In Brazil, CONAB pegs planted wheat area at 2.55 million hectares, down 16.7% from last year, but projects 2025 output at 7.81 mmt—just 1% lower—on expectations of a 19% yield increase.
• LSEG commodities research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 801.38 mmt. This represents a slight bump of 0.3% from their last estimate; higher production forecasts for Russia and the EU were largely offset by declines for the U.S.
• The state grain buyer of Egypt has made a deal to purchase at least 200,000 mt of French wheat in private deals. They also agreed to purchase smaller amounts from Ukraine and Romania. Last December, their state purchases were taken over by a military organization, who import primarily by private deals. In contrast, the previous state buyer, GASC, imported via international tenders.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• September and October Class III futures were higher today while the rest were unchanged or lower. Q4 2025 continues to struggle.
• Spot cheese gained a penny today to close at $1.83/lb. Spot whey fell 1.50 cents to close at $0.59/lb.
• September through December Class IV futures gave back some value today while the rest were unchanged.
• Spot butter fell 1.25 cents today while powder lost a half cent to bring Class IV futures off their morning gains.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg