CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures managed to close higher yet again on Thursday as December futures tested calendar year highs. Crop tour results out of Illinois announced last night were disappointing compared to expectations. September corn added 4-1/2 cents to 477-1/2, while December corn added 4-1/2 cents to 502-1/2.
• Pro Farmer found an Illinois statewide average yield of 184.2 bpa during Wednesday’s tour, with samples running 8% below last year. That compares with USDA’s latest estimate, which calls for a 1% decline from 2025.
• Pollination issues and lower ear counts appear to be the primary factors behind the weaker yield findings so far. Scouts move into eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota today, where growing conditions have generally supported expectations for stronger yields.
• Weekly export sales came in within expectations Thursday morning. After a wet start to August, the weather pattern is expected to turn quieter through month-end, with generally mild temperatures.
• No new Black Sea attacks were reported overnight, but significant damage to export and energy infrastructure has already disrupted regional logistics. The impact on global commodity flows could persist for months.
• Corn momentum indicators are becoming stretched after December futures gained more than 40 cents over the past seven sessions. Thursday’s late-session weakness may signal the market is ready to pause and consolidate following the sharp rally.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day in bear spreading action after coming off their highs from earlier in the morning. Overall, a steady flow of Chinese purchases and poor pod counts from the Pro Farmer tour have supported the market. In addition, crude oil moved higher today and is nearing $90 a barrel which was supportive to soybean oil.
• September soybeans lost 1-1/2 cents to $12.20-3/4 while November lost ¾ cent to $12.36-1/2 and at one point was up as much as 7 cents earlier in the day. The deferred months traded higher with March up 1-3/4 cents to $12.57-1/4. September soybean meal lost $3.20 to $315.70 and September soybean oil gained 1.32 cents to 71.18 cents thanks to a jump in crude oil of 2 dollars to $87.83.
• The Pro Farmer tour in Illinois saw soybean pod counts at 1430.37 by 3×3 plot and 215 samples, which is down from 1479.22 last year. This would be a 3% decline, but the USDA has estimated a 7% increase for the state. Results for western Iowa saw pod counts down from last year in Districts 1, 4, and 7.
• Today’s export sales report was strong for soybeans with an increase of 3.1 million bushels in sales for 25/26 and an increase of 63.3 mb for 26/27. Top buyers were China, unknown destinations, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 14.9 mb were below the 17.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat faded from early-session highs to close mixed. The winter wheat classes likely faced some resistance after becoming technically overbought. Black Sea tensions continue to be a market driver but have taken somewhat of a backseat this week as the market focuses on the impact of Pro Farmer Tour results on grain prices. In the September contract, Chicago gained 2-1/2 cents to 682-3/4, Kansas City was up 1/4 cent at 762-1/4, and MIAX rallied 6-3/4 cents to 700-3/4.
• The USDA reported an increase of 14.5 mb of wheat export sales for 26/27. Shipments last week at 19.3 mb exceeded the 15.1 mb pace needed per week to reach their 775 mb export goal. Total 26/27 wheat export commitments now stand at 289 mb, down 32% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of August 18, the estimated area of U.S. spring wheat production in drought held steady with the previous week at 63%. Winter wheat acres, however, saw a 2% increase on the week to 54%. This is well above the 31% figure at this year last time; added moisture would be beneficial ahead of the upcoming winter wheat planting campaign.
• LSEG has reduced their estimate of EU & UK combined wheat production by 2.3% to 145.5 mmt. In similar fashion, the International Grains Council dropped their global wheat crop production estimate by 4 mmt to 817 mmt – this is said to be largely due to the heatwave that affected Europe.
• A mild winter is expected for both North America and Europe due to the El Niño weather pattern. This should minimize winterkill risks for the wheat crop in both regions. Additionally, Europe may see wetter than normal conditions which should keep soil moisture levels adequate.

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Author

Brandon Doherty