CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures reversed overnight strength to finish with double digit losses to start the week.  The market seemed to move past the hot weather forecast to focus on the early results from Pro Farmer Crop tour and longer-range weather forecast. The lack of strength in the wheat market helped lead corn lower as well. Price action was very weak on the session.
• Pro Farmer started its annual crop tour, while no official numbers have been posted in the areas evaluated today. Social media was showing relatively good yields in those areas, which may have triggered some selling into the market.
• This week’s hot temperatures will likely stress crops, but Euro weather models are forecasting for improved rainfall and more moderate temperature to end the month. The market will be watching the gulf as a potential tropical storm could develop bring moisture into Texas. The path of that moisture will be watched next week.
• Weekly export inspections brought litter supportive news. Last week’s shipments were at 17.5 mb, which was behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.
• The USDA announced a flash sale of corn as 111,770 MT were sold to Mexico for the 2023-24 marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, but backed significantly off their early morning highs, which saw prices up as much as 24 cents. Both soy products were higher this morning as well, but soybean meal slipped throughout the day for a lower close.
• November soybeans gapped higher overnight filling the gap from July at 13.97, but left a new gap at 13.55. Stochastics are leaning towards overbought and prices could slip if crop conditions improve, or weather conditions turn wetter and cooler.
• While export sales have been well behind a year ago, China has been making small purchases over the past few weeks. This morning, a sale of 159,530 metric tons was reported to unknown destinations for the 23/24 year.
• Weekly export inspections for soybeans totaled 11.6 mb for the week ending Thursday, August 17, with total inspections at 1.894 bb, down 8% from the previous year.
• Polls for the weekly Crop Progress report are showing good to excellent ratings for soybeans, improving by 1 percentage point to 60% after beneficial rains fell.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat inspections of 11.4 mb bring 23/24 total inspections to 134 mb. That is down 19% from last year, and the USDA is expecting 700 mb of total exports for 23/24.
• Despite some Ukraine drone attacks over the weekend in Moscow, which temporarily shut down an airport, traders didn’t have much concern. Likely the bigger item being factored in is the development of their own “corridor” in the Black Sea.
• The US dollar is still in an uptrend, and the fact that Matif wheat was also lower both added pressure to the wheat market today. US SRW wheat is now cheaper than French wheat, but as long as exports remain sluggish it will be difficult for the market to rally.
• According to the CFTC, as of last Tuesday, funds were short about 66,000 contracts of Chicago wheat. This is an increase to the short position by about 10,000 contracts.
• The European Union is considering subsiding the transport of Ukrainian grain through member nations. This is due to several of Ukraine’s neighboring countries banning imports of their grain. Estimated cost would be around 30 Euros per metric ton.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• September Class III futures closed at $18.88 today, jumping 39 cents to start the week. The Q4 average jumped more than 13 cents to finish at $18.23.
• Spot cheese fell 1.125 cents today to close at $1.90625/lb. Blocks are currently sitting at a 20.25 cent premium to barrels.
• Class IV futures once again saw low volume but held grains in the October through April months.
• After dropping 7 cents on Friday, spot butter rebounded with a 4 cent gain today on 12 trades. Spot powder fell a quarter cent to $1.1025/lb.
• Today’s July Milk Production report was bullish with a 0.50% decrease in production vs. the same month in 2022.

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Author

John Heinberg