CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Corn futures saw buying support, strong export demand, and technical buying supported the market today as Dec corn closed at its highest point in nearly three weeks. September closed 7 ¼ cents firmer at 387 ¼, while December gained 7 ¾ cents to 411 ¾.
- USDA announced weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending Aug 14, old crop corn sales saw reductions of 1.1 MMT, but new crop sales were an impressive 2.86 MMT (112.7 mb). Unknown destinations and Mexico were the largest buyers of US Corn last week.
- Total export sales for the new crop marketing year are 16.7 MMT (657 mb), which is up 111% over the pace last year and one of the strongest starts to the export program in the past 25 years. The current export total of 657 mb is 23% of the USDA target for the marketing year at 2.875 bb.
- The Trump administration/EPA are expected to rule on a backlog of Small Refinery Exceptions (SRE) on Friday. The ruling could impact the blends of biofuels in consumer diesel and gasoline. If SRE’s are approved, the corn market may be impacted by a potentially less ethanol requirement. The potential ruling likely supported the corn and soybean markets on the session with short covering.
- Pro Farmer will be completing its crop tour this afternoon and will release results for Iowa and Minnesota this evening. The Pro farmer group will release its corn and soybean yield estimates on Friday after the market closes.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- The soybean markets ended higher on Thursday as the September contract gained 19 ¼ cents to $10.34 ½ and November Futures pushed 20 cents higher to close at $10.56. The soybean oil market was a big support to soybeans on the session as the nearby Sept futures gained $2.44/lb on the session, closing at $53.64. Soymeal futures slipped on spread trading with October meal down 1.10/ton to $290/ton..
- In Illinois, the crop tour found soybean pod counts at 1,479.22 per 3’x3′ plot which compared to 1,419.11. Illinois soybeans may be weaker than initially thought. Western Iowa pod counts were better than last year between 1,279.25 in the Northwest and 1,562.54 in the Southwest.
- Today’s export sales report was relatively good for soybeans with net sales reductions of 6k tons for the 24/25 marketing year and an increase of 1,143k tons for the 25/26 marketing year, which was above most trade estimates.
- The Trump administration/EPA are expected to rule on a backlog of Small Refinery Exceptions (SRE) on Friday. The ruling could impact the blends of biofuels in consumer diesel and gasoline. The potential ruling likely supported the soybean markets on the session with short covering being triggered in the soybean oil futures.
- The soybean market saw a possible technical breakout for a bullish wedge pattern as prices have consolidated around recent highs. The breakout of this pattern today likely triggered some technical buying and short covering in the market. The key will be follow-through in upcoming sessions.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Despite leading the charge higher overnight, wheat gave back some of its early gains by the close. This also comes despite a sharp move upward for soybean and corn futures. September Chicago gained 1-1/2 cents to 507, and September Kansas City gained 2-1/2 cents to 503-1/4. The rise today in the U.S. Dollar Index and increased global harvest estimates may have limited the upside for wheat; the International Grains Council increased their 25/26 production figure by 3 mmt to 811 mmt versus the USDA at 807 mmt.
- According to the USDA, as of August 19, an estimated 31% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 2% from the week prior. During the same timeframe, spring wheat areas in drought decreased by 2% to 14%. The recent rains in the U.S. northern plains are causing some concerns about quality of the portion of the spring wheat crop that has not yet been harvested.
- Weekly wheat export sales totaled about 19 mb, which was at the low end of expectations. Year to date, wheat sales commitments have reached 424 mb, which is up 23% from last year and well above the USDA’s forecast of up 6%.
- LSEG commodities research has kept their estimate of Canadian 25/26 wheat production unchanged at 35.0 mmt. However, they are anticipating heat risks over the next 10 days for Alberta and Saskatchewan, which could affect late season development.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- Class III milk futures were lower again today with most nearby contracts down double digits. September lost 36 cents.
- Blocks lost 8.75 cents today while barrels were unchanged, dropping the block/barrel average to $1.7950/lb. Spot whey was up a quarter cent.
- Class IV futures were pushed lower by a weaker butter trade today. September fell 12 cents while the Q4 contracts were down more than 20 cents.
- Spot butter fell a nickel today to settle at $2.24/lb, now six cents lower on the week. Powder was up slightly to $1.26/lb.
- July Milk Production was up 3.40% in the US at 19.570 billion lbs. Cow numbers and production per cow were both up from this time last year.
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