TFM Daily Market Summary 8-24-2023


  • Corn futures saw choppy and pressured trade before settling with small losses on the day. Dec corn slipped 2 ¼ cents, as the Pro Farmer tour continues to find solid yields, but a lot of variability. Soft export sales report and expiration of September options on Friday limit the market’s upside.
  • Demand will stay the focus of the market. The USDA released weekly export sales numbers for last week on Thursday morning. Old crop sales saw net cancellations of 22,500 MT, but added 673,500 MT to the new crop book. The current marketing year ends on Aug 31.
  • September corn options expire on Friday, which could lead to an increase in volatility as prices have a tendency to move to large areas of open interest. As of Thursday morning, there were 17,660 open puts at the Sept. 480 strike price.
  • The Pro Farmer crop tour continues to find variable, but moderately good yields, which may confirm the possible corn supply available this harvest. Yesterday, Pro Farmer forecasted corn yield in Illinois of 193.72 bu/acre, above last year’s levels. The tour moved into Iowa and Minnesota for its last day of sampling on Thursday, with a final yield projection to be released on Friday afternoon.
  • Longer range weather forecasts are pushing the heat dome back to the South, but the Corn Belt will have limited rainfall until next week. The forecasted conditions may push maturity and limit any chances for the crop to finish out strong.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second day, along with soybean meal, but soybean oil was lower. Demand for soybean meal has been firm with Brazilian soymeal basis up $22 per ton this week, and an export sale of 100,000 mt of soybean cake was reported to unknown destinations.
  • Temperatures today hit a range between 98 and 106 degrees in Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois at a critical time for the soy crop, but temperatures are expected to drop after today. Although the heat is expected to subside, another two weeks of dry conditions are also expected.
  • The Pro Farmer tour finished its rounds of Illinois yesterday, and found an average of soybean pod counts in a 3×3 area at 1,270.61, which is above a year ago and the 3-year average. The tour is in Iowa today, and results can be expected by tomorrow, but early corn yields were seen struggling today.
  • China is conducting trials on GMO soybeans and corn, as well as  yields, were up to 11.6% higher in those trials. China has not yet approved commercial planting of GMO grains, but may change that stance as they try to become as independent as possible.


  • Today, the USDA released export sales for last week and reported an increase in wheat sales totaling 14.9 mb for 23/24. Shipments last week totaling 12.7 mb were below the 13.9 mb pace needed to reach the 700 mb USDA export goal.
  • The US dollar rebounded today, keeping pressure on wheat. Russian exports also added pressure to the market. While they set a $270 per ton floor on wheat exports, it only applies to public tenders, whereas, private tenders are reportedly cheaper and still beating out many world origins.
  • While Argentina continues to be too dry, the Rosario Stock Exchange said that rains should pick up in October with a milder El Nino, and should offer some relief as the southern hemisphere heads into summer.
  • France is the largest wheat producer and exporter in the EU. According to Agritel, French wheat exports are projected to increase to 17 mmt in 23/24, as compared to 16.4 mmt in the previous season. They did leave the French wheat harvest unchanged at 34.8 mmt.


  • Class III futures saw strong double digit gains in the nearby months today with September up 37 cents to $18.76.
  • Spot cheese was 2.50 cents higher after dropping 7 cents through Wednesday for the week. It still sits under the $1.90/lb mark.
  • Class IV action was unchanged to lower with the second month contract down 14 cents.
  • Both spot butter and spot powder were unchanged on no loads traded today.


Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Brandon Doherty

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