TFM Daily Market Summary 8-25-2023


  • Quiet day in the corn market as prices were stuck between strong soybean prices and a pressured wheat market. Overall, corn prices finished steady to slightly lower on the session.  For the week, Dec corn futures traded 5 cents lower.
  • Pro Farmer completed its annual crop tour on Thursday and released yields for Minnesota and Iowa. Minnesota corn yield was disappointing at 181.34 bu/acre, down from last year’s levels, and Iowa corn yield was 182.8 bu/acre, just slightly below last year. Pro Farmer released its projected national yield for the year at 172.0 bu/acre, currently under the USDA and last year’s level.
  • As the market tries to narrow in on potential yield estimates, demand will stay a focus. Current new crop corn sales are disappointing. China is down 91% in corn purchase for the new marketing year, compared to last year. Rallies in the corn market may stay limited if demand remains slow.
  • Longer range weather forecasts are pushing the heat dome back to the South, but the Corn Belt will have limited rainfall until next week. The forecasted conditions may push maturity and limit any chances for the crop to finish out strong.


  • Soybeans traded higher today, with the November contract ending the week 34-1/2 cents higher. December soybean meal ended the week with a large gain, and soybean oil posted a small weekly loss. Crush margins improved this week.
  • The Pro Farmer crop tour released pod counts for most states that were slightly above the 3-year averages, but their final yield estimate was 49.7 bpa, which is below the USDA’s estimate of 50.9, but above last year’s number of 49.5. The USDA typically estimates yields higher than the crop tour.
  • Soybeans are gaining support from the extreme heat and rain that has been absent for over 10 days in the Midwest during crucial pod filling time. The heat is expected to ease up going into this weekend, but rain is light in the forecast over the next 7-days.
  • November soybeans on the Dalian exchange were up 1.5% today to make a new high for 2023 at $19.03 a bushel, which has resulted in increased export sales activity. Adding to the recent string of sales, another one was reported today to unknown destinations in the amount of 121,000 metric tons.


  • After Fed chairman Powell’s comments this morning about potentially more interest rate increases, the U.S. Dollar Index hit the highest level in almost three months. If the dollar remains in an uptrend, it will continue to pressure wheat as it makes U.S. exports more expensive for importing countries.
  • According to consultancy group, Agritel, Russia’s 23/24 wheat exports are expected to be record large at 49 mmt. Additionally, the production estimate from Sov Econ is up 5 mmt from last month.
  • Odesa is introducing a grain export control mechanism, in which vessels will only be loaded after the legality of the grain’s origin is determined. Apparently, many grain sales are not transparent, which is reducing revenue needed for the military.
  • Turkey is said to be encouraging Russia to re-open the Black Sea grain export deal and government officials will meet with Putin. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, reportedly told the UN Secretary General that Russia would return to the deal only if the West fulfills obligations to Russia.
  • Due to the dry conditions in Canda, there is thought that their production will fall below the USDA’s estimated 33 mmt. On Tuesday, Stats Canada is anticipated to reflect this in their crop production estimates.


  • Spot cheese was unchanged on no trades today, closing the week with 4.50 cents of losses. Blocks have fallen to a 14.50 cent premium over barrels.
  • Class III futures, despite the quiet cheese trade, saw solid gains. The second month chart closed up 18 cents at $18.94, up 45 cents on the week.
  • Spot butter was down 3.50 cents today for a weekly drop of 3.00 cents, closing at $2.67/lb. Volume was heavy at 20 loads today. Spot powder remains flat.
  • Class IV futures were under light pressure again today. The second month September contract was down 35 cents on the week.


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John Heinberg

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