CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw buying strength to start the week as buying strength and Chinese rumors helped trigger a short cover rally in the market. September corn futures gained 8 ½ cents to 449 ¼, while December corn added the same 8 ½ cents to 472 ½.
• Rainfall over the weekend was beneficial to a large portion of the Corn Belt, but key areas were missed or on the lighter side of total precipitation. Monday’s crop ratings will likely reflect the have and have not areas. 
• Weather models are forecasting an above-normal rainfall pattern for most of the Corn Belt over the next couple of weeks. For areas that have received rainfall recently, this forecast should support grain fill.
• China was an active buyer of U.S. soybeans going into the weekend. Rumors circulated on Monday that China was checking into U.S. wheat and corn export prices, which helped support the rally.
• USDA released the weekly Corn Inspection report on Monday morning. For the week ending July 30, U.S. exporters shipped 1.884 MMT (74.2 mb). Total corn exports have hit 3.042 BB, up 25% over last year. The USDA export target is 3.325 BB with 4 weeks left in the marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures ended the day higher after rebounding sharply from their morning lows. November soybeans bounced off both the 40 and 50-day moving averages, so today’s move was likely a combination of technical buying after losing 66 cents last week along with talk of more Chinese purchases. They made a large single-day purchase on Friday.
• August soy products are now in delivery and closed lower, but September soybeans gained 3 cents to $11.73-3/4 while November soybeans gained 4-3/4 cents to $11.92-1/4. September soybean meal gained $0.50 to $315.40 and September soybean oil gained 1.53 cents despite a drop in crude oil of over 4 dollars a barrel to $80.33.
• This morning, private exporters reported the sales of 488,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China for the 26/27 marketing year and another 136,150 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 26/27 marketing year. This follows a reported shipment of 830,000 mt of soybeans to China last week.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 30,101 contracts which left them long 155,001 contracts as of July 28. They sold 15,493 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 109,855 contracts and bought 13,503 contracts of meal leaving them long 88,655 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat recovered from Friday’s selloff, with modest to sharp gains across all three classes. Early session weakness in the U.S. dollar aided today’s rally, as did firming MATIF wheat values. In the September contract, Chicago rallied 11-3/4 cents to 651, Kansas City climbed 9-3/4 cents to 717-1/4, and MIAX gained 5-1/4 cents to 695.
• Weekly wheat inspections came in at 12.3 mb, which brings total 25/26 inspections to 107 mb, down 27% from the year prior. Inspections are currently running below the USDA’s estimated pace; exports for 25/26 are forecasted at 775 mb, down 15% from last year.
• According to Russia’s grain lobby, unless the escalation in the war stops, there could be a total disruption to Black Sea wheat exports. If this were to happen, it could mean shipments would only total 30-35 mmt, well below the current USDA estimate of 47.5 mmt. This is equivalent to about 15% of global wheat trade.
• Data from Interfax indicates that Kazakhstan’s marketing year grain exports are up 12% year over year at 13.9 mmt. Additionally, their grain union increased their export estimate by 5% to 14.3 mmt vs 13.6 mmt previously. For reference, their export season runs through the end of August.
• Poland’s Central Statistical Office estimated that their nation’s 2026 winter wheat crop will fall 11% to 11.6 mmt. Reduced yields caused by adverse weather are cited as the cause for the drop. Furthermore, total grain production is expected to fall 4.9% to 25.3 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III prices were mostly lower to start the week as cheese drops slightly. September futures lost 6 cents to close at $17.47.
• Spot cheese fell 0.625 cents to close at $1.55375/lb while whey was unchanged from Friday at $0.6925/lb.
• Class IV futures were pressured lower as both butter and powder markets fell. September futures dropped 14 cents to $17.66.
• Spot butter gave back Friday’s gain of 3 cents to close at $1.4850. Powder prices lost 3.50 cents to go home at $1.5250/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg