The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished the week strong as the combination of improved demand, and First Notice Day brought short covering into the corn market. December corn futures finished the week higher for the first time in five weeks gaining 10 cents on the week.
• This week posted an improved technical picture for the corn market with Dec. futures bouncing off a double bottom at 385, and finishing the week with a weekly reversal, trading past last week’s high. The key will be follow-through price action next week to confirm a possible trend change in corn futures.
• Export sales for corn have improved over the past couple of weeks as lower prices have stimulated some demand. This week’s export sales report for the 24/25 marketing year was above expectations at nearly 1.5 mmt and has helped catch up with the projected export sales pace. New crop sales at a cumulative 9.4 mmt, as of Aug. 22 covered 16.1% of USDA’s 24/25 export forecast. Which is a three-year high for the date.
• Argentina producers are looking to reduce their total corn area for the 24/25 crop by 17.1% versus last year, due to concerns regarding disease and infestation with leafhoppers, which cut yield potential in their 23/24 corn crop.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after volatile trade that saw prices as much as 15 cents higher at the open, turning negative, and then working higher throughout the day. Funds were likely taking profits at the end of the week and month, but good export sales and a decline in crop ratings have added to the bullish fundamental story. Soybean meal was higher today while soybean oil was slightly lower.
• In more supportive news, this morning, the USDA reported a private export sale totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year and 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Colombia for the 24/25 marketing year.
• Today was First Notice Day for the September contracts and there were only 6 deliveries for soybeans, 35 deliveries for soybean oil, and zero versus meal. Today’s move higher saw November beans close right at 1000 which was key, but prices will need to hold these levels next week.
• For the week, November soybeans gained 27 cents to end at 1000 while March soybeans gained 25 ½ cents to settle at 1031 ¾. December soybean meal gained $8.50 on the week to $313.00, while December soybean oil gained 1.63 cents to 42.01 cents.
• In Brazil, soybean production in the key growing state of Parana is expected to jump by 20% to 23.33 mmt due to better yields. While planting for the next season is set to begin in September, many areas remain too dry, which could delay planting until mid-September when rains are expected.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat complex closed higher across all three classes for the fourth consecutive day, after initially trading lower and rallying off support. Minneapolis contracts led the day’s gains, likely driven by ongoing quality concerns regarding the spring wheat crop. Matif wheat, which notched its fifth consecutive higher close, also provided support to the US wheat market.
• It’s been reported that the spring wheat crop in North Dakota continues to battle with quality issues including vomitoxin, sprouting, and low falling numbers due to excessive rain.
• The Australian wheat crop looks to be good shape with reports of surveyed analysts estimating this year’s crop to come in around 31.1 mmt, compared to last year’s 26 mmt and the Australian Ag Minister’s June estimate of 29 mmt. The higher estimate may have added some overhead resistance to prices.
• EU grain production for the 24/25 season is now projected to come in at 264.5 mmt by the European Commission. Of this total, 116.1 mmt are expected to be soft wheat, which is down from the Commission’s July estimate of 120.8 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk posted another impressive day trading 19-25 cents higher for 2024 contracts. November and December contracts made new highs of $22.52 and $21.77 on the day.
• Spot cheese bounced higher led by blocks which gained 13.50 cents while blocks improved 8.75 cents. Spot cheese now sits at $2.2350 which is its highest level since June 2022.
• Spot butter went unchanged at $3.17/lb after 26 loads traded today. Spot powder continues its impressive run trading 2 cents higher at $1.33/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were mixed for remaining 2024 contracts while 2025 contracts traded in the green on slightly better trading volume. The 2024 Class IV average now sits at $21.21.

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Author

John Heinberg