CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Corn futures pushed to new contract lows to start the week, with December settling at $4.07. Prices have now declined in 11 of the past 12 Monday sessions, pressured by favorable weather and the potential for a large harvest.
- Weekly export inspections totaled 1.208 MMT (47.5 mb), in line with expectations. Inspections remain 28% ahead of last year, but nearly 8.0 MMT in outstanding sales must be shipped before the August 30 marketing year end.
- Brazil corn harvest made good progress over the week as weather improved. In the key center-southern regions of Brazil, harvest is 81% complete, up 13% from last week. This is still trending behind last year’s 95% complete levels as a slow start to harvest due to weather and the large production has limited the pace.
- USDA crop ratings, due Monday afternoon, are expected to show corn rated 73% good/excellent, steady with last week. Ratings often decline this time of year as the crop matures.
- Managed funds increased short positions in corn by 3,820 contracts last week, bringing the total net short to 181,185 contracts. Favorable U.S. weather and large crop expectations continue to drive bearish sentiment.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Soybeans ended the day higher for the first time in seven days with the November contract seeming to find support at the $9.85 level. Today’s move felt more technical than anything as weather forecasts have stayed moderate and export demand remains weak. Soybean meal led the complex higher while soybean oil was mostly lower.
- June U.S. soybean crush totaled 197.1 million bushels—up 7.4% from a year ago but down from May’s 203.7 mb. Robust crush activity has added to global soybean meal supplies, even as soybean oil demand remains firm.
- China announced another purchase of soybean meal from Argentina. The purchase was for 30,000 MT of soybean meal, which is equivalent to approximately 1.4 mb of soybeans. Soybean meal is at a lower value given the large global supply due to increased global soybean crush.
- Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 25,445 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 36,311 contracts. They bought 11,274 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 66,600 contracts and sold 3,615 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,358 contracts.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Wheat finished the session with a mixed close. On the positive side, today’s lower U.S. Dollar Index and higher finish for Paris wheat futures were supportive. But pitted against mostly favorable global weather and a lack of fresh friendly news, wheat did not have much reason to move strongly in either direction today.
- Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 22 million bushels, lifting 2025/26 marketing year totals to 144 mb—up 9% from a year ago and running ahead of USDA’s projected pace of 850 mb.
- The Ukrainian grain harvest has reached 15.5 mmt so far. This is 39% behind last year’s 25.3 mmt collected at this time. Of that total, wheat accounts for 11.4 mmt, compared to 19.4 mmt a year ago.
- According to Friday’s Commitments of Traders report, managed funds added just over 13,000 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat. That is an increase of about 25.5% in only one week, bringing the total number of contracts to just over 65,000. Additionally, they added over 3,000 contracts to their net short in Kansas City wheat, now sitting over 47,000 contracts in total.
- Heavy rainfall is forecast for the Canadian Prairies this week, likely benefiting wheat conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, though Manitoba may still face suboptimal soil moisture levels.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- Spot cheese started the week with a 5.75 cent gain to close at $1.7650/lb, an impressive move on top of last week’s gains.
- Class III futures were encouraged by the spot trade and saw the 2025 contracts close up double digits. September settled at $18.11.
- Spot butter was 1.75 cents higher today on 5 loads traded. Powder fell a quarter cent but remains just under $1.30/lb.
- Class IV movement was mostly unchanged today with some slight movement in a couple 2026 contracts.
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