CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw a second day of selling pressure as favorable weather and above trendline yield forecasts weighed the market. September corn lost 5 ½ cents to 436 ¾, and December corn lost 5 ½ cents to 460. December corn posted its lowest daily close since July 9 at the end of the session.
• Forecasts continue to call for above-normal rainfall and normal to slightly above-normal temperatures across much of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks, creating favorable conditions for grain fill.
• USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Wednesday morning. Mexico purchased 120,000 MT (4.7 mb) of corn, split between old crop and new crop supplies. Of that total, 30,000 MT (1.2 mb) was for 2025-26, and 90,000 MT (3.5 mb) was for 2026-27 marketing year.
• The European Commission reduced its corn production forecast by 8 MMT to 51.9 MMT, now 14% below last year, while increasing projected imports to 24 MMT as adverse weather widens the region’s supply deficit.
• The USDA will release the August WASDE report on August 12. In the next few days, the corn market will likely see some private corn yield forecasts for the 2026-27 marketing year. Early forecasts are calling for yields above USDA’s 183 bu/acre trendline estimate, reflecting generally favorable growing conditions through May, June, and July.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower again today but found support at the 100-day moving average and bounced off that level. Favorable weather and frequent rainfall continue to outweigh strong export demand from China.
• September soybeans lost 2-1/4 cents to 1156-1/2 while November lost 3 cents to 1174-3/4. At one point, prices were down as much as 10 cents before rebounding. September soybean meal lost $2.50 to $310.20 while soybean oil lost 0.48 cents to 67.72 cents. Crude oil fell slightly, down 48 cents a barrel to $75.30.
• StoneX projected a 2026 soybean yield of 53.0 bushels per acre, matching USDA’s current estimate, with production forecast at 4.470 billion bushels. USDA will update its production estimates in the August 12 WASDE report.
• China’s Sinograin has sold two thirds of its soybean reserves at auction in order to make room for new U.S. cargoes. The soybeans came from the 2022-2025 crops and came out to around 300,000 metric tons. China purchased 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans yesterday.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Winter wheat futures posted modest gains while spring wheat was mixed amid harvest pressure. A weaker U.S. dollar and stronger MATIF wheat futures helped support prices. In the September contract, Chicago gained 3-3/4 cents to 642-1/4, Kansas City rallied 6-1/2 cents to 713-1/2, and MIAX lost 1 cent to 683-1/2.
• According to the Ukrainian Grain Lobby, their Black Sea port storage capacity may be exhausted by early November due to increasing wheat supplies arriving and not being able to be moved out. Despite ongoing disruptions, traders appear to be treating Black Sea shipping issues as largely priced into the market.
• According to IKAR, Russia’s July wheat exports were down 17% to 24%, and August exports are expected to decline 32% to 43% year over year.
• Wheat harvest in the European Union and United Kingdom is now 54% complete. But because of the extreme heatwave this summer, crop estimates are now said to be the lowest since record keeping started in 1984.
• As El Niño intensifies, drier conditions are beginning to prevail in Australia. Currently, crops are still vegetative and concerns are minimal. However, if drought intensifies over the next few weeks, it could stress the developing wheat crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures continued lower today with September down 35 cents at $16.99.
• Spot cheese ended the day down 2 cents at $1.53375/lb. Spot whey lost 0.25 cents at $0.6875/lb.
• Class IV milk ended the session green with October up 26 cents at $17.91.
• Spot butter ended 0.25 cents lower at $1.4828/lb. Spot powder was up 3 cents at $1.600/lb.
• July Class III settled at $15.52 and Class IV at $18.34.

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Author

Brandon Doherty