TFM Daily Market Summary 9-11-2023


  • Consolidation continues with position squaring before Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report. Dec corn added 2 cents on the session as prices moved in a quiet 6 cent trading range.
  • Export inspections for the week ending September 7 remain light. The U.S. shipped 24.6 mb of corn last week. China did receive shipment on 8.8 mb of corn last week.
  • Early harvest could keep pressure on the corn market. Forecasted weather for the next couple of weeks is to remain dry overall, which could aid harvest.  Cash basis could fade as fresh bushels are moved into the cash market.
  • Corn ratings are expected to fall again this week. Analysts forecast on average that the weekly Crop Progress report would show 52% of the U.S. corn crop in good to excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from the previous week. Crop ratings move more to the back burner this time of year, as crop conditions are expected to slip, and the crop matures.
  • Tomorrow’s USDA report will be looking at crop production and likely making demand adjustments. Expectations are for yield to be lowered to 173.5 bushels/acre from 175.1 last month. If the USDA makes potential demand adjustments, forecast carryout could still be over 2.0 billion bushels. A sleeper item in the report could be the addition of more planted corn acres.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher with support from higher soybean meal, while soybean oil was relatively unchanged on the day. Soybean oil has trended lower over the past month, possibly limiting gains in soybeans, as global veg oils slip.
  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release the WASDE report, in which they will revise yields, export demand, and potentially acreage. Average estimates are for yield to drop by 0.7 bpa, for harvested acres to increase slightly, and most importantly, for ending stocks to fall by about 40 mb for 23/24, which could elicit a bullish market reaction.
  • Malaysian palm oil has been on a downward trajectory, falling over 3% today and 5.2% last week, as they see the highest palm oil inventory in 7 months with August production nearly 9% above July. While veg oils have been slipping, crude oil continues to trend higher.
  • Crop progress will be released later today, and estimates are for good to excellent ratings to fall by 2-3%. The soybean crop seems to be shrinking at a time when export demand for soybeans is ticking up, and the ending stocks number may be getting dangerously tight. Brazil’s monster soybean crops are the biggest bearish factor.


  • Wheat export inspections of 14.9 mb brings the total 23/24 inspections to 175 mb, which is down 26% from last year. Total exports are estimated by the USDA at 700 mb, however, this could potentially be revised in tomorrow’s WASDE report.
  • Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to have minimal changes for wheat numbers. U.S. carryout is expected to come in at 614 mb versus 615 mb previously, and world ending stocks are anticipated to be 265.0 mmt versus 265.61 mmt. If true, that would be the lowest in seven years.
  • Offering weakness to U.S. futures prices, Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower on Monday, and though the U.S. Dollar Index was lower today, it has been higher for eight consecutive weeks.
  • With Russia’s wheat harvest now 71% complete, Sov Econ revised their Russian export estimate higher, from 48.1 to 48.6 mmt., and according to consultancy IKAR, Russia’s FOB export values fell to $240 per mt., both of which keep pressure on U.S. exports.
  • Russia is said to have rejected offers from the UN and Turkey that were aimed at re-opening the Black Sea export corridor. For now, Ukraine will have to transport what they can by rail and truck out of Europe, but many European nations have refused to import Ukrainian grain for fear of lowering their domestic values.


  • Coming off the holiday, Class III futures closed with both small gains and losses to start the week with October futures down 4 cents.
  • Spot cheese was down slightly on no trades while spot whey jumped 1.50 cents, closing at $0.32/lb and its highest point since May 8th.
  • Class IV action was unchanged to higher thanks to a solid spot butter trade, which jumped a nickel to move back over $2.70/lb.
  • Powder, however, was lower once again and approaching a move underneath $1.00/lb.
  • July cheese production was down 0.70% YoY while butter production during the month was up 3.50% from July 2022.


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Amanda Brill

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