CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures traded lower Wednesday as biofuel concerns and caution ahead of the FOMC rate decision kept buyers sidelined.
• The EPA has opened a discussion window regarding the latest allocation of blending exemptions. This built uncertainty in possible usage of biofuel to meet blending requirements. The lack of clarity pressured both the corn and soybean oil market on the session.
• The Fed cut rates by 0.25%, with two more possible by year-end. The softer stance pressured the U.S. dollar, supportive for corn and commodities; the dollar has fallen a full point over the past three sessions.
• Weekly ethanol production was softer than last week at 310 million gallons/day. The total was still 0.6% higher than last year. Production was the lowest in 17 weeks and below expectations. A total of 510 mb of corn was used last week in the production of ethanol. Overall ethanol stocks remain low at 22.6 million barrels.
• The late-September forecast calls for above-normal temps across most of the Corn Belt, with normal to below-normal precipitation—favorable for harvest progress.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, taking out most of yesterday’s gains but did not take out its low and also found support once again at the 20-day moving average. November soybeans lost 6 cents to $10.43-3/4 and March lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.78. October soybean meal lost $1.90 to $283.90 and October soybean oil led the complex lower losing 1.45 cents to 51.24 cents.
• Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 7.53 mmt in the month of September, which would compare to 7.43 mmt the previous month. Brazilian crush estimates have been raised by 0.7% to 58.5 mmt for 2025 according to ANEC.
• President Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi on Friday regarding TikTok and broader trade issues. While China hasn’t bought U.S. soybeans since January 22, 2025, traders speculate they may step in if a deal materializes and ahead of a potentially smaller U.S. crop.
• New crop soybean sales to other countries apart from China have been the best since 2018-2019, but this has not been enough to offset the lack of Chinese business. Brazilian beans are the most expensive in the world right now, but the additional 23% tariff that China has placed on U.S. beans has made ours the most expensive.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market closed lower in sympathy with corn and soybeans. The losses come despite a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures and another move lower for the U.S. Dollar Index, which hit the lowest level today since early 2022. The December wheat contracts lost 5-3/4 cents in Chicago to 528-1/4, 7-1/4 cents in Kansas City to 516-1/4, and 2-1/2 cents in MIAX to 574.
• Good rains fell over parts of the U.S. Southern Plains over the past 24 hours, which should help to recharge soil moisture for winter wheat that is currently being planted.
• Statistics Canada raised its 2025 all-wheat production estimate by 700,000 mt to 36.6 mmt (+1.9% vs 2024), in line with USDA’s recent increase to 36.0 mmt.
• Russia’s ag ministry sharply raised its wheat export tax nearly 300% to 495.9 Rubles/mt for September 17–23, part of the grain damper mechanism introduced in 2021 to subsidize producers.
• According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 34% year over year, totaling 3.78 mmt as of September 14. This compares with 5.73 mmt shipped during a similar timeframe last year. Saudi Arabia was the largest importer at 569,000 mt, followed by smaller amounts from Jordan and Morocco.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures turned higher midweek, with the October contract gaining 71 cents to close at $17.36.
• Spot cheese posted another positive session, rising 4.25 cents to close at $1.6625/lb. Spot whey also added 0.75 cents, finishing at $0.6100/lb.
• Spot butter finally showed some strength, gaining 4 cents to close at $1.8100/lb. Spot powder also edged higher, adding 0.50 cents to settle at $1.1450/lb.
• Class IV milk futures posted solid midweek gains, with the November contract closing up 75 cents at $15.97.

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Author

Amanda Brill