CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sideways trade continues in the corn market, with prices remaining mostly range-bound over the past seven sessions. The lack of bullish news has limited nearby upside, while demand and concerns over tight supplies continue to provide support for prices. December corn lost 3 ¾ cents to 530 ½, while March lost 4 ¼ cents to 544 ¼. 
• The USDA announced weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. For the week ending September 10, the USDA announced new sales of 1.026 MMT (40.4 mb) for the 2026-27 marketing year. This total was within, but towards the lower end of trade expectation. Current export commitments are down 27% from last year.
• The U.S. dollar has traded to the 100-basis-point level with a rally supported by the Fed Reserve interest rate increase on Wednesday. The stronger dollar can impact the value of U.S. grains on the global export market.
• The U.S. Senate Ag committee voted to advance the farm bill to the Senate floor on Wednesday. The Farm Bill holds a measure for year-round E15 sales.
• The corn market will be watching early harvest results to look for confirmation that this fall’s corn crop is limited and below trendline yields.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day, with prices fading into the close. Strength continues to come from soybean meal, while soybean oil has remained relatively range-bound despite a very strong crude oil market that continues to trend higher amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict. China’s President Xi was scheduled to meet with President Trump next week, but reports of a possible health emergency involving Xi have raised questions about whether the meeting could be postponed.
• November soybeans lost ¾ cent to $13.19.3/4 while March gained ½ cent to $13.45-3/4 in bear spreading action. Soybeans have still been unable to take out last week’s high. October soybean meal gained $7.80 to $368.70, while October soybean oil lost 0.51 cents to 68.68 cents. October crude oil is down $0.60 to $101.83 a barrel.
• Today’s Export Sales report was strong for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 62.5 million bushels of sales for 26/27 and no activity for 27/28. This was above analyst estimates, and top buyers were China, unknown destinations, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 22.9 million bushels were below the 32.6 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.
• NOPA soybean crush came in well below expectations for August at 205.46 mb, the lowest in 11 months. The figure was below the 210 mb estimate and down 5.2% from July’s 216.65 mb. Despite the monthly decline, August crush was still 8.2% above last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across the board. The U.S. Dollar Index reached its highest level since the end of July, weighing on grain markets as a stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive for international buyers. Similarly, a firmer euro pressured MATIF wheat, which likely spilled over into the U.S. market. In the December contract, Chicago lost 3-3/4 cents to 727, Kansas City was down 5 cents at 794-1/2, and MIAX dropped 3-1/2 cents to 752-1/2.
• The USDA reported an increase of 12.0 mb of wheat export sales for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 18.4 mb, which was better than the 15.0 mb pace needed per week to reach their 775 mb export goal. Wheat export commitments for 26/27 now sit at 334 mb, down 31% from last year.
• Better prospects for rain in the U.S. Southern Plains may be pressuring HRW futures. Winter wheat planting is just getting underway, so the additional moisture should help with crop establishment.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat exports in September may exceed 2 mmt, which is above their previous estimate of 1.5-2.0 mmt. This is said to be due to a rise in rail shipments.
• French soft wheat exports for the 26/27 season are estimated at 13.5 mmt, according to FranceAgriMer. This is down 1.0 mmt from their July estimate and also down 12% year over year. This is said to be largely caused by a reduction in sales outside of the EU.
• Russia is reported to have damaged a key railway bridge in the Odessa area of Ukraine – this will cause significant disruptions for grain enroute to Danube ports. As reported by Reuters, without the bridge, trains will take at least 26 days to get to the ports. There are reportedly 3,000 railcars carrying grain which are currently headed to Danube ports.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were mostly higher with better buying action out into 2027. October futures were the only month to close lower losing 6 cents to $15.86.
• Spot cheese fell half a cent to finish at $1.4375/lb, while whey improved a penny to $0.7725/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were quiet for remaining 2026 contracts. October futures closed 2 higher to $19.56 while December futures lost 5 cents to $18.55.
• Spot butter resumed its weakness today, losing 1 cent to close at $1.3450/lb. Powder was unchanged from Wednesday at $2.05/lb.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg