CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures fought off early weakness to close higher Tuesday. September gained 5 cents to $4.03, and December added 2 ¾ cents to $4.23 — its third straight higher close and the strongest since July 21.
• Corn charts have improved technically, and money flow has been positive. A close above $4.20 opens the door for a test of $4.30 and the July 18 high at $4.30 ¼.
• Funds continue to cover shorts. CFTC data showed managed money trimming nearly 34,000 contracts last week, leaving a net short of 110,686 contracts as strong demand and tightening supply support prices.
• Exports remain supportive. Weekly inspections totaled 1.407 MMT (55.4 mb), pushing 2023/24 inspections to 2.636 bb — 29% above last year.
• Weather and disease concerns linger. Cool, dry finishing conditions and disease pressure may limit yields, with traders leaning below USDA’s 188.8 bpa August forecast ahead of the September 12 WASDE.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed sharply lower Tuesday, pressured by weaker soybean meal. November fell 13 ½ cents to $10.41 and March dropped 12 cents to $10.75. October meal slid $5.10 to $278.30, while October oil gained 0.56 cents to 52.26. Fears of slowing Chinese demand and a meal glut from strong crush weighed on prices.
• Dry weather forecasts support the soybean market as areas in the Corn Belt have seen their driest August in over 100 years. The poor finishing weather will likely limit the potential final crop size as harvest approaches. It is likely that yields will be adjusted in this month’s USDA report.
• The European weather model is showing a more aggressive rainy season for Northern Brazil throughout September. This month is the start of the Brazilian planting season and improving soil moisture levels will likely set producers up to a good start of the season.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 20,815 contracts, leaving them with a net long position of 20,818 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 673 contracts, leaving them long 30,669 contracts and were buyers of meal by 23,528 contracts, reducing their net short position to 61,711 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower across all classes. December Chicago fell 6 cents to 528-1/4, Kansas City dropped 8 ½ to 511-1/4, and Minneapolis lost 5 ¾ to 574-1/4. Pressure stemmed from a stronger U.S. dollar, fresh contract lows in Paris milling wheat, falling Russian values, and larger Australian production outlooks.
• Export pace remains supportive. Weekly inspections of 29.5 mb lifted 2025/26 total inspections to 244 mb, up 15% from last year and ahead of USDA’s projected pace of 875 mb for the season.
• According to SovEcon, Russian wheat export values fell to $230/mt, which is down $5 from the week prior and $15 from just a few weeks ago. This is said to be due to sluggish demand. Additionally, some are predicting the Russian wheat harvest could reach as high as 86-87 mmt, well above the USDA at 83.5 mmt.
• ABARE, Australia’s ag bureau, increased their estimate of Australian wheat production by 10% to 33.8 mmt. Although this would be down 1% from last year, it would still be 22% above the ten-year average. Better than expected rains across their wheat growing regions are cited as the reason for the increase.
• LSEG commodities research has indicated that the next 10 days will be cool across southern Argentina over the next 10 days. Temperatures could be 2-6 degrees Celsius below normal, which could lead to frost in wheat growing regions. This is causing some concern of damage for early emerging wheat.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• October, November, and December Class III futures all made new contract lows on Tuesday as a bearish GDT weighed on the market.
• The GDT Auction from Tuesday saw the GDT Price Index fall 4.30% to 1,209. This is the lowest close since January 2025.
• Within the auction, GDT butter lost 2.50% while GDT cheese actually rose 3.60%. Both powder products were down over 5% each.
• The butter market here in the US remains under pressure. 2nd month butter futures hit its lowest level since December 2021.
• Class IV struggled once again as well, nearly closing below $17.00 on two contracts. The butter weakness is weighing on prices.

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Author

John Heinberg