CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures remained in a consolidation trade, staying within the range of the previous two sessions before finishing with mild losses. Strength in soybeans and wheat helped provide underlying support. December corn lost 1 cent to 522, and March futures slipped ½ cent to 536.
• Corn harvest on a national scale is running at 18% complete as of September 27. This was even with the 5-year average and 1% above last year. Best progress was happening in the eastern and southern corn-producing regions. The western Corn Belt lags, led by Iowa.  As of Sunday, Iowa corn harvest was 5% complete, down 9% from last year and 5% below the five-year average.
• Wet weather across the western Corn Belt could slow harvest into early October. Moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast for most of the western Corn Belt, with flood watches issued in central Iowa, which is already dealing with wet weather.
• The USDA will release the Quarterly Grain Stocks report on September 30. The USDA could make changes to the 2025-26 corn harvest and finalize demand for the last marketing year. Expectations are for fourth-quarter grain stocks to be near 1.911 bb, up 360 mb from the September 1 total last year.  
• The corn market could likely see some additional position squaring as September 30 brings the end of the month and quarter. Managed money holds a historically large, long corn position, which could lead to some profit taking to end the month.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher following yesterday’s sharp sell-off of 30 cents but only made a dent in recovering those losses. November soybeans gained 9-1/2 cents to $12.97-3/4 while March gained 9-1/2 cents to $13.21-1/2. December soybean meal lost $0.40 to $359.00 and December soybean oil gained 0.70 cents to 68.36 cents despite November crude oil being down $3.36 a barrel to $89.25.
• Soybean harvest came in below market expectations on Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report.  As of September 27, soybean harvest was 17% complete, 3% below market expectations, 1% below last year, and even with the 5-year average.
• Wet weather has impacted the western Corn Belt, and forecast remains wet into the first part of October.  Key soybean producing state of Iowa have only harvested 3% of the soybean crop. This total is 14% below last year and 12% below the 5-year average.  
• Slow harvest in the western corn belt has forced end users to push basis bids in some areas to strong premium over the soybean board price, as end users are scrambling to find fresh supplies to meet the strong crush and export demand.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed mostly lower, though the SRW front months made slight gains with bull spreading as a noted feature. Soybeans rebounding today may have somewhat aided the wheat complex. The two-sided trade may also be indicative of a “wait and see” attitude from traders ahead of tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports from the USDA. In the December contract, Chicago gained 4 cents to 692-3/4, Kansas City lost 2-3/4 cents to 743, and MIAX was down 2-1/2 cents at 699-1/4.  
• Yesterday’s crop progress reported indicated US winter wheat planting was 27% complete as of September 27. This falls below last year’s 32% pace, and the five-year average of 34%. Additionally, 8% of the crop has emerged, versus 12% a year ago and 11% on average.
• The average pre-report estimate of U.S. wheat quarterly stocks, as of September 1, comes in at 1.849 bb. This compares with 920 mb on June 1, and stocks a year ago at 2.134 bb. In addition, US 26/27 all wheat production is estimated at 1.527 bb, down only 4 mb from the August projection. However, this would be down 458 mb from the 25/26 season and also a 56 year low in production.
• The Ukrainian ag minister has said that their nation does not expect a Black Sea ceasefire for several months yet. This will likely continue to cause shipping disruptions in the region. Nevertheless, IKAR has estimated that Russia shipped 2.3 mmt of wheat in the month of September. This was above previous estimates ranging from 2.0 mmt to 2.2 mmt.
• According to CONAB, as of September 18, an estimated 21.6% of Brazil’s wheat crop area has been harvested. Furthermore, in the state of Parana, yield projections were revised lower as a result of warmer than normal temperatures and excess rainfall during August and September.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were seen dropping again today as cheese prices struggle. October Class III dropped 18 cents to $14.90.
• Spot cheese lost 1.375 cents to close out the day at $1.36375/lb. Whey remains strong, improving a half a cent to $0.81/lb.
• Class IV futures were steady to higher for remaining 2026 contracts. December futures posted a gain of 22 cents to go home at $19.60.
• Butter fell 3.75 cents on the day to $1.3175/lb which is right near the low of the year at $1.30/lb. Powder jumped 1.25 cents to close at $2.1925/lb.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg