CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A choppy trading session ended the week as corn futures faded off session highs to finish softer on the day. End of week pressure outweighed another strong week of export sales during the day. September corn futures closed ¾ cents lower to 399, and December corn lost 1 ¾ to 418. For the week, December corn lost 2 ¼ cents.
• Weekly export sales remain very strong for the 2025-26 marketing year. For the week ending August 28, new crop corn sales totaled 2.117 MMT (83.3 mb), near the top end of expectations. Mexico remained the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Old crop sales saw cancellations of 11.1 MB as the end of the marketing year approached.
• The next USDA WASDE report will be released next Friday, September 12. The market will be seeing private analyst estimates for this corn yield and production. SP Global released a yield estimate of 189.1 bu/acre this afternoon, higher than the 188.8 forecast by the USDA in August. The corn market is still preparing for a large crop to be in the pipeline this fall.
• The White House announced this morning plans to review the biofuel waiver process. The use of refinery exemptions and the number granted can impact corn demand for ethanol. Decisions on the biofuel waiver system could impact mandates for 2026-27.
• Below normal temperatures are forecasted for the northern Corn Belt this weekend as overnight low temperatures could push toward the freezing mark. If some frost was to occur, it could limit the final development of the corn and soybean crops in those areas.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, fading from earlier morning highs as a result of lower soybean oil and further concerns over the lack of China as a buyer. November soybeans lost 6 cents to $10.27, while March soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.60-3/4. October soybean meal gained $0.40 to $280.50, and October soybean oil lost 0.70 cents to 50.81 cents as it followed crude oil lower.
• Today’s export sales report was middle of the road for soybeans with a net reduction of 0.9 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 but an increase of 30.1 mb for the 25/26 marketing year. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Mexico, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 16.8 million bushels were below the 20.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
• StoneX has revised their estimates for the 25/26 soybean yield lower to 53.2 bpa. This would be slightly below the USDA’s estimate but is on par with Allendale’s last guess of 53.28 bpa. Production is estimated at 4,257 mb, and the USDA will update its estimates next Friday.
• For the week, November soybeans lost 27-1/2 cents and are trading at support levels, while March soybeans lost 26-1/4 cents. October soybean meal lost $2.90 for the week, and October soybean oil lost 0.89 cents. A bullish WASDE report could cause funds to short cover next week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a two-sided trade and despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat closed lower. The exceptions were deferred Chicago contracts – July ’26 was neutral and December ’26 was 1/4 cent higher. As for December 2025 contracts, Chicago lost 1/4 cent at 519-1/4, Kansas City was down 1 cent to 505-1/4, and MIAX closed 4-1/4 cents lower at 566.
• Weekly export sales, which were delayed until today, showed the USDA reporting an increase of 11.5 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26, along with 0.2 mmt for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 32.7 mmt, which far exceeded the 16.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 875 mb. Total 25/26 wheat sales commitments have reached 456 mb, up 22% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of September 2, spring wheat areas in drought were steady with last week’s reading of 13%. However, a recent lack of rain in winter wheat areas is becoming more apparent – drought conditions increased to 34%, up 3% from the week before. It is worth noting, however, that winter wheat acres in drought were 52% at this time last year.
• In an update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, they reported that Argentina’s wheat crop is 98% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. While this is very good, some heading winter wheat may have sustained recent frost damage, and there is risk of additional cold fronts over the next two weeks.
• Ukraine has reportedly collected 28.8 mmt of grain so far in their harvest. Of that total, 22 mmt is wheat, which is up slightly from the 21.8 mmt figure at this time last year. Meanwhile, Russia is said to have collected 100 mmt of grain so far, out of an expected total of 135 mmt. In related news, Russia increased their wheat export tax by 25% to 168.6 rubles/mt through September 16.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were lower heading into the weekend as a weaker cheese trade continues to hamper Class III prices.
• Spot cheese dropped below the $1.70/lb level after losing 4.125 cents to close out the week at $1.6950/lb. Whey lost 0.25 cents to close at $0.5650/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were quiet on the day with only the November contract seeing any movement. November futures lost 2 cents to close at $16.88.
• Spot butter ticked higher by 0.75 cents to close at $2.0225/lb but still remains near 4-year lows. Powder fell 0.75 cents to close at $1.22/lb.
• July Dairy Products showed cheese production totaled 1.21 billion pounds, which was 2.1% higher year-over-year. Butter production came in at 180 million pounds which was up 9.8% from July 2024.

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Author

John Heinberg