TFM Daily Market Update 8-3-2023


  • Corn futures traded lower for the eighth consecutive session, as prices closed below the key $5.00 psychological level as the market is pricing in favorable weather and looking for bullish news.
  • The technical picture and price action remains weak in the corn market, as the path of least resistance is lower with December corn closing under the $5.00 level on Thursday. The July $4.81 low in the December contract looks to be the next downside target.
  • The weather forecast going into the middle of August is tracking potentially cooler than normal temperatures and average to above average rainfall for most of the Corn Belt. This would be favorable weather to help fill out this year’s corn crop.
  • Overall, dry conditions are still a concern as 57% of the crop, down 2% from last week, is affected by drought. The lack of overall moisture keeps the need for timely rainfall, or the crop could see some production losses.
  • Weekly exports sales for corn were uneventful as the USDA reported new sales for last week totaling 4.2 mb of old crop, and 13.7 mb of new crop. These totals were within expectations, but still lacking the demand pace needed to meet USDA targets. Total new crop sales are trending 35% below last year’s levels currently.


  • The soy complex was higher today with soybean meal following that same trend, but soybean oil was lower in all contracts. While export sales were supportive, the weather forecasts are suppressing rallies.
  • The USDA reported an increase of 3.3 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, which was down 54% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average .There was an increase of 96.7 mb for the 23/24 marketing year, and exports were 12.7 mb, which was down 9% from the previous week but up 30% from the prior 4-week average.
  • StoneX released their August Survey results, and estimate final soybean yield at 50.5 bpa, down 1.5 from the USDA’s current estimate. If materialized, this could tighten 23/24 supplies and be supportive to prices.
  • Private exporters reported sales of 134,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. China and unknown destinations have been active buyers of US soybeans over the past week.
  • The 7-day and 14-day forecasts are showing significant amounts of rain throughout the Corn Belt and northwestern Plains, along with much cooler temperatures from the previous week, with most expectations for the low 80’s. Good weather this month could really make the soybean crop despite dryness earlier in the season.


  • The USDA reported an increase of 15.5 mb of wheat export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 0.5 mb for 24/25. Total commitments are now 215 mb for 23/24, which is down 29% from this time last year.
  • Putin is reportedly considering a reinstatement of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. However, Russian demands must first be met before they would agree to any new deal.
  • There are rumors that India is looking to import up to 9 mmt of wheat from Russia. Apparently, the Indian government is directly negotiating with the Russian government. If true, this could have big implications for the global wheat trade.
  • Funds are believed to be adding to their next short position in Chicago wheat. This is keeping pressure on the market, along with the fact that Matif wheat was lower for the 8th session in a row.


  • September Class III futures were down more than 30 cents, closing at $17.19 at its lowest close in 10 trading days.
  • Cheddar blocks were unchanged at $1.96/lb while barrels were down 4.50 cents to $1.8250/lb on no loads traded.
  • Class IV futures saw most contracts down double digits as well. September futures are down 49 cents on the week after gaining 72 cents last week.
  • Spot butter was down for the third straight day, dropping 6.50 cents so far this week. Spot powder fell slightly as well.


Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Amanda Brill

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