TFM Daily Market Update 8-4-2023


  • Corn futures held onto some of the overnight gains, breaking the streak of eight consecutive negative trading sessions. Despite the small gains on Friday, corn futures finished the week down 33 cents for the December futures.
  • Corn futures saw some buying strength on the overnight session as Ukraine military triggered a drone attack against a military vessel in the Russian port of Novorossiysk. This caused the port to be closed for a short time, triggering buying strength in wheat and corn markets.
  • Overall, weather forecasts are still non-threatening for the corn market. Weather models are forecasting the next 10 days to be cooler and wetter than normal for many areas of the Corn Belt.
  • The on-going Brazilian corn harvest will keep fresh supplies of corn on the export market. This week, analysts raised production expectations for the Brazil crop, which will have a large impact on potential U.S. export corn business.
  • The technical picture and price action remains weak in the corn market, as the path of least resistance is lower with December corn, failing to push back above the $5.00 level on Friday. The July $4.81 low in the December contract looks to be the next downside target.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher, but backed off the highs made in the overnight after Ukraine attacked a Russian warship near a Black Sea port. The attack did little damage, but shut the port down for a few hours and it was the first attack by Ukraine on a Russian port.
  • Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil caught support from higher crude oil and a jump in Malaysian palm oil. Palm oil futures have fallen for eight days on expectations of record production and huge stocks, but Malaysia is beginning to export that palm oil.
  • Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is now being estimated at a whopping 165.9 mmt compared to 157.3 mmt the previous year.
  • Yesterday, the USDA reported a new sale of 4.9 mb of US soybeans to China, and export sales for last week were an impressive 97 mb of new crop beans, with primary destinations to China and unknown destinations.


  • Wheat was higher overnight after reports of a Ukrainian drone strike on military vessel in a Russian port. Most of these gains were given up by the close, but did allow Chicago wheat to stop the recent bleeding, with a close in positive territory today. The Minneapolis and Kansas City contracts did not fare as well though, ending with double digit losses.
  • Putin has apparently said that he is willing to re-open the Black Sea grain export deal. The catch is that it would require sanctions to be eliminated and Russia let back into the SWIFT banking program.
  • According to the Foreign Agricultural Service, the EU’s total grain harvest estimate has been reduced to 270.9 mmt, from its previous estimate of 281.3 mmt. Weather extremes have been cited as the main issue affecting production. Wheat production in particular is expected to be 134.6 mmt versus 138 mmt previously.
  • Recent heavy rains in China’s grain growing regions have caused flooding issues that may damage crops and have already displaced thousands of people.


  • For the week, September 2023 class III milk fell 22c while October was down 44c. The market pulled back on a stale spot trade.
  • Additional pressure for the week came from a Global Dairy Trade Auction on Tuesday that saw the GDT price index down 4.30%.
  • There were reports late in the week that New Zealand’s Fonterra lowered its milk price forecast on demand concerns out of China.
  • US spot butter was down 6c this week, keeping pressure on the class IV trade. Second month class IV was down nearly 50c
  • Friday’s Dairy Products Report said total US cheese output in June was up 0.40% from a year ago.


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Brandon Doherty

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