TFM Mid-Day Update 5/24/2019


Corn futures are trading into new highs for the move, with Jul up 8 cents to 3.97-3/4, Sep is up 8-1/4 to 4.06-3/4, and new crop Dec corn is trading 7-1/2 cents higher to 4.15-1/2. Many areas in the Midwest are getting heavy rains today and the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts are still showing above normal precipitation. These forecasts persist through June 6, past the insurance dates for most areas. Corn acreage remains in jeopardy, and if the market decides that those acres need to get planted past the insurance dates, corn will need to buy those acres very quickly. Dec corn matched its high from yesterday, trading as high at 4.16-3/4. The nearby Jul corn made new highs for the move today at 3.99-3/4, its highest trade since December 19. Technical indicators are getting overbought readings, but momentum appears to be higher. Funds sold 20,000 contracts of corn yesterday and are thought to be net short about 149,000 contracts.


Soybean futures are rallying this morning, with Jul up 6-3/4 cents to 8.28-1/4, Sep is up 6-3/4 cents to 8.42, and new crop Nov beans are also up 6-3/4 cents to 8.55. Soybeans likely found some buyers on news that the market facilitation payments would not be made on a commodity by commodity basis, but instead a calculated county average multiplied by planted acreage. This should not incentivize farmers to plant soybeans they otherwise wouldn’t with the sole purpose of participating in the payments. Weather forecasts showing heavy rains in the coming days could push intended corn acres over to soybeans. Soybean futures are putting in their eighth consecutive test of their overhead 20-day moving average resistance level. A close above would be the first since mid-April. Momentum indicators are still pointing higher, but that resistance point has proven staunch. Funds sold 7,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday and are thought to be net short about 166,000 contracts.


Wheat markets are sharply higher this morning, with Jul Chi wheat up 11-1/2 to 4.81-3/4, Jul KC wheat was up 9-1/4 cents to 4.34-1/2, and Jul spring wheat was up 8-1/2 cents to 5.42-3/4. Heavy rains today in North Dakota will keep a lid on spring wheat planting progress today, and the heavy rains seen over the past few days and the winter wheat growing areas are raising concerns about protein content and quality. Forecasts are still showing heavy rain as well. Jul Chi wheat is trading above its 100-day moving average again, but is not closed above that since August of last year. Funds sold 3,000 contracts of wheat in Chi yesterday and are thought to be net short about 67,000 contracts.


Cattle markets are missed in quiet trade again today, with Jun lives up 20 cents to 111.00, Aug lives are down 25 cents to 107.90, and Oct lives are down 15 cents to 107.90.l Aug feeders are up 57 cents to 143.60, and Sep feeders are up 42 cents to 144.42. Cash trade wires have been very quiet today, with early week trade coming in 1.00 below last week. Beef values have been rallying over the past couple of days, keeping the cattle from drifting too far. Technical resistance and support levels are holding strong in both the live and feeder markets keeping prices quiet and range bound.


Hog markets are showing triple digit losses so far today, with Jun hogs down 1.47 to 87.95, Jul hogs are down 1.37 to 89.57, and Aug hogs are down 1.02 to 91.27. Pork and cash hog prices have been choppy lately, and technical momentum is mixed to lower. Without much in the way of trade developments, hog markets are trading the cash fundamentals keeping the trend choppy to lower.


Market Commentary is provided daily by Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson, Inc.




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