TFM Midday Update 01-03-2023

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

  • Mar corn down 6 @ 6.72
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated Argentina’s corn crop at 15% good to excellent
  • Rains in Argentina over the weekend were better than expected, but the 10-day forecast is dry
  • There is still a lack of US export demand which is a concern to the market
  • US national corn basis is still at the highest level in 20 years

SOYBEANS

  • Jan soybeans down 22 @ 14.97
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated Argentina’s soybean crop at 10% good to excellent
  • March soybeans closed above $15 to end the year (which is the highest year-end close on record)
  • Brazil could see a record 5.58 bb soybean crop in 2023
  • China is seeing an increase in Covid cases and deaths but there is talk that they might issue a stimulus package to help their economy

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WHEAT

  • Mar Chi wheat down 7 @ 7.85, Mar KC down 11 @ 8.77, & Mar MNPLS down 9 @ 9.30
  • News outlets are reporting that several private insurers are no longer covering vessels from Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus due to war concerns
  • Black Sea areas will see colder temperatures, but most of the winter wheat crops are covered with snow
  • Paris milling wheat futures are lower and pressured by Black Sea exports
  • The US southern plains look to remain dry
  • The US Dollar Index is sharply higher today, which may be adding to pressure

CATTLE

  • Feb LC down 1.225 @ 156.675 & Jan FC down 1.075 @ 182.625
  • Poor export sales last week may pressure cattle futures
  • Higher cash last week may cause feedlots to hold out and packers to be more aggressive
  • Now that the holidays are over, demand could slow down
  • Choice cuts up 3.12 and select up 0.23
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/30: up 2.09 @ 181.93

HOGS

  • Feb hogs down 1.475 @ 86.225 & Feb pork cutout UNCH @ 94.075
  • Cash and cutouts last week struggled which did not help futures
  • As with cattle, less demand after the holidays is a concern
  • Deferred futures contracts are holding better than nearby, indicating concern about tighter supply down the road
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.32
  • Hog slaughter projected at 489K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/3: down 0.55 @ 80.19

Author

Brandon Doherty

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