TFM Midday Update 01-03-2024

CORN

March corn made a new contract low to start the year but is holding around neutral at the time of this writing. Technically, corn futures are now at or near oversold levels, which may indicate that a bottom may be nearing.
The long range forecast for northern Brazil indicates good rains into mid-January. Expectations are for between 4 to 9 inches of rain in some areas that have been drier, including the top grain producing state Mato Grosso.
Argentina’s corn crop is rated 38% good to excellent, versus just 15% at this time last year. Some estimates have Argentina doubling corn production versus a year ago as a result of much improved conditions.

March soybeans gapped lower yesterday and closed at the lowest level since the end of June. The trend for now appears to be downward, but if there is a silver lining it is the fact that gaps like to be filled over time.
Despite some lower private estimates of the Brazilian soybean crop, South America as a whole is estimated to produce between 15-25 mmt more soybeans than last year, keeping pressure on the US market.
March soybean meal has lost nearly $70 per ton since the high on November 13, at $445.10. This plunge is largely associated with the improved conditions in Argentina’s soybean crop versus last year. Thus, the lower meal market is keeping a lid on soybean futures.
Yesterday’s census crush data was record large for November at 200 mb, and soybean oil stocks fell to 1.591 billion pounds versus expectations of 1.630.

March Chicago wheat broke below the 40 & 50-day moving averages (around 6.05) as well as the six-dollar support level during this session. At the time of this writing, it is back above six, but still below the moving averages. Psychologically, six dollars may be an important support/resistance level.
Russia is said to have again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port on Tuesday, but it is having little impact on the wheat market. In that part of the world, an arctic storm is expected to hit both countries next week.
Russia remains dominant in the export market, with their wheat FOB values are said to be the world’s cheapest at $245 per mt.

Brandon Doherty