CORN
- Mar corn up 4 @ 6.08
- Brazil and Argentina corn may each be down by 5 mmt
- 40% of Argentina’s corn crop is early variety – pollinating right now in 100+ degree temperatures (highs could reach 115 degrees in the next 10 days)
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange decreased the Argentina corn rating to 40% good to excellent vs 58% last week
- The 11-15 day forecast for South America does turn cooler and brings some rains
SOYBEANS
- March soybeans up 25 @ 14.13
- Brazil soybean crop may be down as much as 13 mmt from the USDA estimate, with Argentina down 5 mmt
- Argentina soybean crop conditions have been lowered to 48% good to excellent – this compares to 71% two weeks ago
- China has bought 27% fewer soybeans than last year
- World veg oils continue to trend higher
WHEAT
- Mar wheat up a @ 7.47, Mar KC down 1 @ 7.68, Mar MNPLS down 12 @ 9.12
- Argentina’s wheat harvest is done – looks like they will have more wheat to export
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentina’s wheat production at 300,000 mt higher (to 21.8 mmt)
- Australia is offering wheat for export, though there are some limitations on their export capacity
- Wheat futures are becoming very oversold from a technical perspective
- Last week’s export sales of 1.8 mb were a new marketing year low
CATTLE
- Feb LC down 0.225 @ 137.125 & Mar FC down 0.850 @ 166.425
- Live cattle export sales showed a reduction of 3,900 metric tons
- Boxed beef has been improving
- Chart gaps remain above current levels and may need to be filled
- Choice cuts up 1.61 and select up 1.03
- Cattle slaughter projected at 114K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/6: up 0.15 @ 162.28
HOGS
- Feb hogs down 1.850 @ 81.100 & Feb pork cutout down 1.850 @ 92.700
- Packers are aggressive as hog supplies have tightened
- China’s purchase of pork on the export sales report was positive
- Weekly export sales at 19,400 metric tons
- National Direct Afternoon report increased 0.78
- Hog slaughter projected at 464K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 1/7: down 0.30 @ 73.57
Author
Brandon Doherty