TFM Midday Update 01-09-2026

CORN

Corn continued to trade lower at midday, reflecting pressure from disappointing export sales and anticipation of Monday’s USDA report. March corn is lower at 4.45 ½.
Monday’s report is expected to show U.S. production falling 200 million bushels to 16.552 billion, with the average yield declining to 184 bpa. Ending stocks are projected to drop 57 million bushels to 1.972 billion.
Argentina’s corn is 89.1% planted, but crop conditions fell 7% last week to 75% rated good to excellent, compared with 46% a year ago.
Dry conditions in Buenos Aires and the Pampas region in December caused some crop damage, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The southern half of Argentina remains a concern.

Soybeans moved higher at midday, rebounding from yesterday’s losses ahead of Monday’s Supply and Demand report, with the entire soy complex trading higher. March soybeans are up at 10.64 ½.
Monday’s Supply and Demand report is expected to set the market tone into late winter. Bloomberg pre-report estimates peg USDA soybean ending stocks at 294 million bushels, up from 290 million in December. Harvested area is expected to remain unchanged, while yield is anticipated to slip slightly to 52.7 bpa, down from 53.0 last month.
The USDA reported a sale of 198,000 mt of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery.
Today was opinion day for the Supreme Court, but it was announced that no ruling will be issued on the case testing the legality of President Trump’s global tariffs, contributing to additional market volatility.

Wheat futures traded lower at midday as beneficial rains fell across parts of the Plains, relieving some dry, stressed areas and easing weather-related concerns. Chicago March wheat is lower at 5.17 ¾, and Kansas City March wheat is also lower at 5.29 ¾.
The share of U.S. winter wheat under drought rose 2% this week to 42%, well above the 24% seen this time last year.
Forecasts call for much cooler temperatures moving into Central and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea wheat regions next week, increasing the risk of winterkill.
Ukraine’s December wheat exports declined 25% year over year due to continued port infrastructure attacks.
Argentina’s wheat harvest is nearly complete, with 98.5% finished.

Lauren VandenLangenberg