TFM Midday Update 01-11-2022

CORN

Mar corn up 3 @ 6.03
Though rains are forecasted next week, Argentina and southern Brazil will remain very hot and dry in the meantime
Mexico continues to buy US corn (two purchases over the last two trading days)
CONAB’s corn estimate is likely to show a 2-3 mmt decline
For the past 13 weeks, ethanol production has been higher than needed to meet the USDA’s corn ethanol usage number
There is talk that as much as 8-10 mmt of corn has been lost in South America

March soybeans up 5 @ 13.80
China likely needs soybeans – recent sales to “unknown” could be them
Yesterday’s selloff may have been, in part, profit taking ahead of this week’s report
Northern Brazil is still getting rain but may get a break next week, allowing for more soybeans to be harvested there
There is talk that as much as 10-12 mmt of soybeans have been lost in South Americaorts)

Mar wheat up 5 @ 7.67, Mar KC up 11 @ 7.89, Mar MNPLS up 15 @ 9.29
Tomorrow the market will get the first estimates of US winter wheat planted acres (estimates are for acres to be up 1 million from last year)
Wheat may be experiencing a correction upward from a technically oversold situation
The market is awaiting the Iraqi tender results which could include US HRW wheat
US southern plains weather remains bullish for wheat as dryness continues

Feb LC up 1.875 @ 138.125 & Mar FC up 1.800 @ 167.15
Chart gaps remain above current levels and may need to be filled
Workforce disruptions due to covid are preventing packers from running higher chain speeds
Demand remains strong, which will require packers to process as much as possible despite these disruptions
Boxed beef continues to increase
Choice cuts up 4.22 and select up 5.40
Cattle slaughter projected at 115K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/10: up 0.19 @ 161.98

Feb hogs down 0.225 @ 78.150 & Feb pork cutout down 0.525 @ 89.975
Hog futures continue to plummet
Slower slaughter pace is a concern
India has agreed to allow imports of pork (this could be a significant market and help export demand)
National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.06
Hog slaughter projected at 465K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/11: up 0.97 @ 74.70

Brandon Doherty