TFM Midday Update 01-11-2023

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Mar corn up 3 @ 6.58
  • Corn is trading relatively unchanged ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report and demand concerns that have been putting pressure on prices
  • The USDA is expected to reduce their estimate of corn exports tomorrow, but some analysts are expecting the USDA to find 11.19 bb of corn on hand which would be the lowest in 9 years
  • March corn on the Dalian exchange are trading at the equivalent of $10.76 a bushel and China seems to be in need of corn imports
  • Brazil’s corn is currently cheaper than the US, but the gap is narrowing which may allow the US to pick up more export business


  • Mar soybeans up 11 @ 14.96
  • Soybeans are trading higher as weather forecasts differ over potential rains in Argentina, and a soybean flash sale was reported this morning
  • The European models are calling for a drier Argentina forecast while American models are calling for more rain
  • Private exporters reported sales of 124,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 22/23 marketing year
  • US soybean export commitments are at 1.61 bb so far for 22/23 and are 5% higher than a year ago, needing just another 435 mb to reach the USDA’s estimates


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  • Mar Chi wheat up 8 @ 7.39Mar KC up 8 @ 8.19, & Mar MNPLS up 5 @ 8.99
  • Wheat is trading higher this morning after breaking below December lows yesterday as a bearish USDA report is expected
  • The bearish aspects for tomorrow’s report may come from large stocks in Australia and Russia, but Australia’s crop received too much rain and is rated poorly
  • So far, Ukraine has shipped about two-thirds of its normal amounts of grain out of the Black Sea corridor but further shipments could be impeded by Russia
  • US ending wheat supplies are headed for their lowest finish in 15 years, and December 1 wheat stocks are expected to come in at 1.35 bb, also the lowest in 15 years


  • Feb LC down 0.400 @ 157.350 & Jan FC down 0.925 @ 183.375
  • Both live and feeder cattle are trading lower with feeders taking the brunt of the selling as corn moves higher and boxed beef declined
  • Feedlots have put out some offers in the South that are between 1 and 2 dollars higher which gives some optimism for better cash this week
  • Boxed beef has been on a steady climb higher but may be reaching a threshold for consumers
  • Choice cuts down 1.61 and select down 1.27
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/10: up 0.64 @ 181.01


  • Feb hogs down 0.600 @ 79.200 & Feb pork cutout down 0.875 @ 87.150
  • Hogs are trading lower and have taken out some levels of support after cash moved lower and the cutouts fell by 0.62
  • The February chart gap has been filled at 79.15 which may allow prices to move higher
  • The strong pace of slaughter has put a lot of pork on the market and demand hasn’t been there to meet supply
  • National Direct Afternoon report decreased 0.57
  • Hog slaughter projected at 491K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/11: down 0.70 @ 76.79


Amanda Brill

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