TFM Midday Update 01-12-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 16, 2023, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn down 5 @ 6.51
Corn is trading a bit lower today ahead of the WASDE report at 11 which may show increased production and lower exports
The average trade estimate for US corn production is 13,922 mb which would be down slightly from last month’s estimate of 13,930 mb
The average trade guess for US ending stocks is 1,302 mb, up from December’s report showing 1,257 mb
Net sales of 255,700 mt of corn for 22/23 were down 20% from the previous week and 62% from the 4-week average, and exports of 387,100 mt were down 49% from last week

Mar soybeans up 6 @ 14.97
Soybeans are trading higher after overnight news that Argentina sharply cut their forecast for the 22/23 soybean harvest to 37 million tonnes from 49 million
The average trade estimate for US soybean production is 4,360 mb and is up slightly from last month’s 4,346 mb’
The average trade guess for US ending stocks of soybeans is 236 mb, up slightly from last month’s 220 mb
Net sales of soybeans were 717,400 mt for 22/23 and were down 1% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average

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Mar Chi wheat down 14 @ 7.26, Mar KC down 9 @ 8.13, & Mar MNPLS up 1 @ 9.00
Wheat is trading lower as a bearish WASDE report is expected and net export sales and exports were poor
The average trade guess for US winter wheat acreage for 22/23 is 34.5 million acres, higher than the previous year which was 33.3 million acres
The average trade guess for US ending wheat stocks is 582 mb for 22,23, up from 571 mb last month but down from 21/22
Net sales of 90,800 metric tons of wheat for 22/23 were up 93% from last week but down 73% from the prior 4-week average

Feb LC down 0.600 @ 157.150 & Jan FC down 0.200 @ 182.925
Both live and feeder cattle are down again today with lower boxed beef dragging fats lower and an uncertain WASDE outcome for corn putting pressure on feeders
Feedlots are holding out for better cash with asking prices between 158 and 159 in the South and 253 or higher in the North
Feeders are seeing strong interest at auctions as moisture outlook improves
Choice cuts down 3.80 and select down 0.23
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/11: up 1.31 @ 182.32

Feb hogs down 1.500 @ 77.800 & Feb pork cutout down 1.725 @ 85.625
Hogs are trading lower after another drop in cash and dip in the cutout of 1.05 with butts and picnics pulling the average down
February futures closed the chart gap which leaves room to the upside from a technical standpoint
Packers are running at a fast slaughter pace with hogs easy to acquire which is putting a level of supply onto the market that demand can’t handle
National Direct Afternoon report decreased 0.32
Hog slaughter projected at 490K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/12: down 0.35 @ 76.44

Amanda Brill