TFM Midday Update 01-13-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 16, 2023, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Mar corn up 1 @ 6.73
Corn is trading higher on the bullish momentum from yesterday’s WASDE report which was friendly across the board
US production was cut alone with quarterly stocks, US ending stocks, and world ending stocks
The USDA’s new ending stocks estimate of 1.242 bb is the second lowest in 9 years
Net sales of corn came in at 255,700 mt for 22/23 and were down 20% from the previous 4-week average while exports of 387,100 mt were down 49% from last week

Mar soybeans up 8 @ 15.26
Soybeans are also continuing their move higher after yesterday’s friendly report which was slightly more friendly for corn
The USDA decreases US production, quarterly stocks, and US ending stocks, but increased world ending stocks likely due to Brazil’s record crop
US ending stocks were lowered from 220 mb to 210 mb due to lower production estimates for 22/23, and this number came in far below the average trade guess
Weekly soybean sales were not terrible but have been sliding in the past few weeks as China buys less

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Mar Chi wheat down 4 @ 7.38, Mar KC up 5 @ 8.40, & Mar MNPLS down 2 @ 9.11
Wheat is trading lower as a bearish WASDE report is expected and net export sales and exports were poor
The average trade guess for US winter wheat acreage for 22/23 is 34.5 million acres, higher than the previous year which was 33.3 million acres
The average trade guess for US ending wheat stocks is 582 mb for 22,23, up from 571 mb last month but down from 21/22
Net sales of 90,800 metric tons of wheat for 22/23 were up 93% from last week but down 73% from the prior 4-week average

Feb LC down 0.425 @ 157.125 & Jan FC down 1.250 @ 180.875
Live and feeder cattle are both trading lower with only light losses in live cattle front months and bigger losses in feeders as corn moves higher
Weekly export sales were 13,300 mt and did not have much effect on prices
Higher grains did not cause feedlots to sell as they continue holding out for higher prices
Choice cuts down 3.24 and select down 1.09
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/12: up 0.04 @ 182.36

Feb hogs up 0.175 @ 79.000 & Feb pork cutout up 0.125 @ 87.275
Hog futures are trading slightly higher today despite that cash slipped again and the cutouts fell by 1.39
The USDA raised the average price of hogs by 1.00 to 68.00 for the year on yesterday’s WASDE report which was supportive
Weekly exports yesterday were low at 13,100 mt and China not an active buyer
National Direct Afternoon report decreased 0.39
Hog slaughter projected at 486K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/13: down 0.47 @ 75.49

Amanda Brill