TFM Midday Update 01-18-2022


  • Mar corn up 1 @ 5.97
  • Starting today, the South American weather forecast is wet for the next 10 days; for most of Argentina (3 to 6 inches predicted)
  • Potentially lower South American corn crop could add to the US corn export numbers
  • Yields in northern Brazil are above average, but there is concern over quality because of wet conditions
  • China’s 2021 corn imports are reported to be record large (28.35 mmt)


  • Mar soybeans down 4 @ 13.66
  • The US might pick up some soybean and soymeal export demand because of the lower Argentina crop
  • The wet 10-day forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil is pressuring the market
  • Private exporters reported 239,486 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 21/22 marketing year
  • Ag Rural reported the Brazilian soybean harvest is 1.2% completed


  • Mar wheat up 22 @ 7.64, Mar KC up 23 @ 7.68, Mar MNPLS up 19 @ 8.97
  • Rumors that China is buying wheat and barley are helping the market
  • US HRW wheat is $12 to $13 cheaper per metric ton than Russian wheat
  • Algeria bought 600,000 mt of milling wheat last week (likely sourced from Argentina and the EU)
  • The Russian wheat export tax is expected to drop next week
  • There has been talk over the weekend that Russia may still invade Ukraine


  • Feb LC up 0.050 @ 138.025 & Mar FC down 0.900 @ 165.475
  • Chart gaps remain above current levels and may need to be filled
  • Lower cash last week was unsupportive
  • Cash expected to be lower again this week
  • Cattle are backing up in the market with increasing weights
  • Choice cuts up 3.55 and select up 3.08
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 114K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/14: down 0.021 @ 161.80


  • Feb hogs up 0.375 @ 81.275 Feb pork cutout down 0.050 @ 93.750
  • Traders expect more exports due to the spread of African Swine Fever in other countries
  • The agreement with India that they will import pork comes with the expectation for increased exports as well
  • Current slaughter pace remains a concern
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.49
  • Hog slaughter projected at 462K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/18: up 1.30 @ 75.90


Brandon Doherty

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