TFM Midday Update 01-19-2022

CORN

  • Mar corn up 6 @ 6.05
  • Corn inspections at 47.4 mb (total inspections at 602 mb)
  • Despite South American rain events, overall dryness remains a concern and is helping to support the market
  • La Nina pattern could cause dryness to permeate into the US western corn belt this spring / summer
  • May corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $10.92 per bushel

SOYBEANS

  • Mar soybeans up 19 @ 13.80
  • Soybean inspections at 63.2 mb (total inspections at 1229 mb)
  • Argentina will see 2-4 inches of rain but will go back to a drier pattern after about 10 days
  • NOPA crush estimated at 186.4 mb in December (higher than expectations and up 2% from last year)
  • April palm oil gapped higher to a new contract high
  • Higher crude oil could increase biofuel demand

WHEAT

  • Mar wheat up 17 @ 7.86, Mar KC up 17 @ 7.90, Mar MNPLS up 20 @ 9.27
  • Wheat inspections at 13.6 mb (total inspections at 470 mb)
  • Fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine caused a sharp rally yesterday
  • US southern plains remain dry and that pattern could continue this spring
  • Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised Argentina’s wheat production – increasing to 21.8 mmt

CATTLE

  • Feb LC up 1.125 @ 138.800 & Mar FC up 1.025 @ 166.45
  • Chart gaps remain above current levels and may need to be filled
  • Consumer demand for beef is strong
  • Cattle in the north traded steady money, but the south traded $1.00-$1.50 lower
  • Slaughter may increase over the next few weeks
  • Choice cuts up 1.63 and select up 1.34
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/18: down 0.50 @ 161.30

HOGS

  • Feb hogs down 0.100 @ 81.500 & Feb pork cutout down 0.725 @ 93.500
  • Packers were willing to bid up yesterday
  • Slaughter pace remains a concern but shows signs of improvement
  • African Swine Fever remains a concern in other countries
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 4.08
  • Hog slaughter projected at 469K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/19: up 0.88 @ 76.78

Author

Brandon Doherty

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