TFM Midday Update 01-21-2022


  • Mar corn up 3 @ 6.14
  • USDA reported an increase of 43.0 mb of corn export sales
  • Last week, weekly ethanol production rose 47,000 barrels per day to 1.053 million barrels per day
  • China’s Dalian May corn this week hit the highest level since June (close to the equivalent of $11 per bushel)
  • Outside markets are mostly down with concern about increased interest rates, as well as concern of US involvement in the Russia/Ukraine situation


  • Mar soybeans down 10 @ 14.16
  • USDA reported an increase of 24.7 mb of soybean export sales
  • Palm oil is making new highs – Indonesia is talking about a ban on exports of Palm oil due to a reduction in stocks as well as an increase in biodiesel demand
  • Argentina continues to get rain but parts of Paraguay and southern Brazil remain hot and dry
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered Argentina’s soybean crop condition to 30% good to excellent (down 1% from last week)
  • One private estimate yesterday pegged the Brazilian soybean crop as low as 127 mmt


  • Mar wheat down 5 @ 7.85Mar KC up 2 @ 7.98, Mar MNPLS down 5 @ 9.40
  • USDA reported an increase of 14.0 mb of wheat export sales
  • There are unconfirmed rumors that China may be looking to purchase HRS wheat from the Pacific Northwest
  • Early reports suggest the Geneva meeting between Russia and the US was unproductive
  • Russia still wants the west to guarantee that Ukraine will not be entered into NATO
  • Extended forecasts (8-14 day) are putting precipitation into the US Central and Northern Plains


  • Feb LC down 0.375 @ 137.950 & Mar FC down 1.300 @ 163.650
  • Chart gaps (most apparent in feeders) remain above current levels and may need to be filled
  • Cattle on Feed report due for release today at 2 PM central
  • Pre report estimates: 99.7% on feed, 101.8% placements, 100.9% marketings
  • The biggest concern in the market is throughout but there are some signs that slaughter pace is picking up
  • Cash traded mostly steady for the week
  • Choice cuts up 1.38 and select up 1.75
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/20: down 0.04 @ 161.20


  • Feb hogs up 0.625 @ 85.550 & Feb pork cutout up 0.325 @ 94.825
  • Hogs are still continuing their uptrend
  • Tightening supply remains a concern to traders
  • Hog futures could be considered overbought and due for a correction
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 3.72
  • Hog slaughter projected at 463K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/21: down 0.06 @ 76.79


Brandon Doherty

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