TFM Midday Update 01-22-2024

CORN

Corn is trading near unchanged at midday, and a higher close would be the third consecutively higher close after March corn found support near the $4.40 level.
There was a lack of fresh news over the weekend, but last week’s export sales report was stronger than anticipated, pointing to the open export window in the US.
Weather in South America is mixed with Argentina facing drier conditions over the next three days while Brazil has better chances for rain over the entire country, apart from Mato Grosso du Sul. The improved forecast has caused July corn prices on the Bovespa Exchange to fall by 14% in January.
Non-commercials currently hold their largest net short position since 2020 of 219,968 contracts which could result in short covering if prices begin to move higher.

Soybeans are trading higher today with the March contract finding support at the 12-dollar mark last Thursday. Lower soybean meal is limiting gains for soybeans, but soybean oil is trading higher.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is underway and is reportedly 6% complete, up 2% from the prior week. Yield reports have been poor so far, but in general, the worst of the crop has been harvested first so that safrinha corn can be planted in time.
Export sales for soybeans last week were stronger than expected, and on Friday, a flash sale of 10.9 mb was announced to China. That was the first reported sale since December 19.
Led lower by soybean meal, the value of soy products has fallen over the past few months along with soybeans. This has caused crush premiums to narrow, but they remain profitable.

Wheat is mixed today with Chicago and Minneapolis higher but KC trading lower. There has been a lack of fresh news which led to prices stagnating.
Global shipping woes continue to be an issue causing increased freight rates. European shipments have been avoiding the Suez Canal due to attacks by Houthi rebels and have diverted for different routes.
In the US, precipitation is expected to fall over the southwestern Plains and most of the SRW wheat areas. Today, ice and snow are expected from Michigan down to eastern Texas.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 10,587 contracts of wheat which increased their net short position to 68,575 contracts.

Amanda Brill