TFM Midday Update 01-22-2025

CORN

  • Corn prices are lower at midday, influenced by the potential for improved weather conditions in parts of Argentina and ongoing negotiations regarding potential tariffs.
  • USDA confirms sale of 136,000 mt of U.S. corn delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 year.
  • Dr. Cordonnier reduced his Argentine corn estimate by 1 mt, bringing it to 48 million, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 51 million, while leaving Brazil’s forecast unchanged.
  • Corn prices remain supported by expectations that President Trump will urge China to honor the Phase 1 trade agreement from his first term, potentially leading to significant U.S. corn purchases.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybean prices continue to decline at midday, following China’s announcement today. While soybeans and soybean oil remain lower, soybean meal experiences some gains.
  • China has suspended soybean imports from five Brazilian firms due to failure to meet phytosanitary standards. Sources indicate concerns arose after shipments were found to contain chemical contaminants, pests, and insects.
  • The U.S. dollar is slightly lower today following a sharp decline yesterday. Despite the currency drop, Brazilian soybeans remain significantly cheaper than U.S. prices, which could slow the rally, particularly with expectations of improved harvest conditions in Brazil in the coming weeks.
  • Deral reports that the soybean harvest in Brazil’s state of Paraná is 8% complete, while Mato Grosso’s harvest is 2% finished, compared to 13% at this time last year. The delay is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions.

WHEAT

  • Wheat prices are higher at midday, bolstered by a weaker dollar, continued cold temperatures, and several global demand tenders.
  • Concerns about winter kill persist for exposed winter wheat due to a lack of snow cover and the ongoing cold snap across the U.S.
  • Russian wheat delivery for the first part of February fell to $234 pet MT, down $3 from the previous week, reported by the IKAR consultancy.

Author

Lauren VandenLangenberg

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