TFM Midday Update 01-24-2023

CORN

Mar corn up 6 @ 6.72
Corn is trading higher today making back some of yesterday’s losses that were triggered by Argentinian rains causing funds to sell
There have been reports that China is inquiring about Ukrainian corn prices for the nearby as well as Brazilian second crop corn which could take away from US exports
Corn exports are running 30% behind a year ago and supplies continue to increase which is causing some concern especially as South American weather improves
Producers are very well sold on old crop, and these are currently the second highest January cash prices in history

Mar soybeans up 1 @ 14.91
Soybeans are trading higher as well but are not making back the losses as well as corn as bearish pressure from Brazil remains a concern
Southern Brazil has received some rain but is relatively dry which may impact yields, but in Mato Grosso, early yields are showing 60 bpa compared to early estimates of 53 bpa
China is on holiday so exports may be slow this week, but a fear is that cancellations occur for US sales in favor of cheaper Brazilian beans
Bean meal is trading slightly higher while bean meal is lower due to a drop in crude of over a dollar a barrel

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Mar Chi wheat up 12 @ 7.32, Mar KC up 16 @ 8.35, & Mar MNPLS up 14 @ 9.02
Wheat is trading higher and has regained the most of its losses among the grain complex with help from higher Paris milling wheat
Futures continue to face pressure from the cheap wheat being pumped out of Ukraine and Russia
In India, internal wheat prices have risen to a record high which equates to $361 per mt due to last year’s drought
Southwest HRW wheat areas remain mostly dry – the recent precipitation has been in northern and eastern areas

Feb LC down 0.375 @ 157.100 & Mar FC down 0.350 @ 182.925
Both live and feeder cattle are trading lower as lower boxed beef puts pressure on fats and higher corn puts pressure on feeders
Packers have not purchased many cattle ahead for this week and may result in them stepping up this week with better cash
Choice cuts down 0.28 and select down 1.94
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/23: down 0.84 @ 177.03

Feb hogs down 0.575 @ 77.000 & Feb pork cutout down 0.100 @ 85.300
Hogs are struggling to trade higher again today despite a rise in the cutout of 0.93 but lower cash trade
Slaughter pace remains very strong and has exceeded last week’s pace and that of a year ago keeping plenty of pork on the market and pressure on cutouts
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.28
Hog slaughter projected at 491K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/24: down 0.63 @ 72.65

Amanda Brill