TFM Midday Update 01-24-2025

CORN

  • Corn futures continue weaker at midday following news that Argentina will temporarily reduce export taxes to incentivize farmers to sell as the harvest season ramps up in the upcoming weeks.
  • Heat and dry conditions continue to stress Argentina’s crops, with the 15-day forecast showing no relief in sight. Crop stress is expected to persist, and conditions are likely to worsen.
  • The weekly export sales report revealed corn exports at 66 mb, at the high end of expectations. Year-to-date corn export commitments total 1.650 bb, up 29% from YA, compared to the USDA’s forecast of up 7%.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybean futures fall at midday also following the Argentina export tax news. While soybean meal and soybeans experience losses, soybean oil sees slight gains.
  • Argentina’s forecast remains unchanged, with moisture deficits growing in the east-central and southeast crop regions, while the northern area has experienced some relief.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced its production estimate by 1 mt to 49.6 mt, down from the USDA’s estimate of 52 mt for Argentina’s crops.
  • Soybean exports totaled 55 mb, in line with expectations. Year-to-date soybean commitments stand at 1.555 bb, up 11.5% from YA, compared to the USDA’s forecast of up 8%.

WHEAT

  • All three classes of wheat are trading lower at midday, following corn and soybeans, after the news of Argentina’s export tax reduction.
  • Wheat exports totaled 8 mb, at the low end of expectations, bringing year-to-date commitments to 650 mb, up 7% from YA, compared to the USDA’s forecast of up 20%.
  • China raised their wheat production to 140.1 mt, up 3.5 million from last season due to better yields. The strong crop and increased production are the reasons China is re-selling previously purchased wheat from Australia to other global buyers.

Author

Lauren VandenLangenberg

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