TFM Midday Update 01-25-2023


  • Mar corn down 1 @ 6.76
  • Corn has been trading either side of unchanged this morning as trade grapples with the question of South America’s improved weather
  • The market has been hoping for a shift in export demand to the US from Brazil, but Ukraine is still selling less expensive corn
  • Argentina’s corn crop is rated just 5% good-to-excellent so the portion of the crop that will benefit from the recent rains may be less than expected
  • Snow is falling from Missouri to Ohio today and some fell yesterday in the southwestern Plains which will help sustain the water levels on the Mississippi
  • Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 22/23 marketing year


  • Mar soybeans up 3 @ 14.91
  • Soybeans began the day 9 cents lower but are currently trading slightly higher as with corn, the market is trying to see what to make of South America’s improved rain forecast
  • Rains in Argentina are forecast to continue through next week and may help the poorly rated beans that are just about to begin setting pods
  • In the US, crush margins have slipped a bit now that Argentina has received some rain and should be set to export bean meal, but the margins remain profitable for processors
  • Crude oil has been relatively rangebound the past few days, but the higher trade today is offering some support to beans
  • Private exporters reported sales of 130,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 22/23 marketing year


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  • Mar Chi wheat up 6 @ 7.40, Mar KC up 11 @ 8.44, & Mar MNPLS up 6 @ 9.09
  • Wheat is trading higher and may have found a bottom in the past few days as prices got very technically oversold
  • The southwestern Plains has received some moisture over the last few days which has helped a bit but has not been enough to offset the serious drought
  • Non-commercials have had a heavy hand in moving wheat prices and with a large net short positions and prices so low, they may start to buy contracts back
  • US wheat supplies are at their lowest levels in 15 years and will continue to get tighter over the next four months, but Ukraine and Russia’s cheaper offerings have kept prices down


  • Feb LC down 0.500 @ 157.350 Mar FC up 0.075 @ 183.675
  • Both live and feeder cattle are lower again today as lower boxed beef again puts pressure on fats while rising corn weighs on feeders
  • Higher corn prices could have a negative impact on cash trade this week as feedlots may not want to keep cattle on hand for longer than they need to
  • Choice cuts down 1.80 and select down 2.10
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/24: up 0.50 @ 177.53


  • Feb hogs down 0.450 @ 76.650 & Feb pork cutout down 0.725 @ 84.275
  • Hogs are trading lower following another drop in the cutouts of 0.86, but better cash was overshadowed
  • Feb hog futures are extremely oversold and reached a low of 76.300 this morning taking out the October low of 76.400
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.55
  • Hog slaughter projected at 483K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/25: down 0.54 @ 72.11


Amanda Brill

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