TFM Midday Update 01-26-2023

CORN

Mar corn up 9 @ 6.84
Corn is trading higher and has resumed its uptrend on multiple flash sales this week, along with solid export sales last week
US corn export sales were 35.8 mb for 22/23 and were down 20% from last week’s large number, but up 46% from the prior 4-week average and Japan was a buyer of 23/24 crop
Shipments last week of 35.9 mb were below the weekly average of 45.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates
In bearish news, Mexico said that it would look to reduce its corn imports by 30-40% and look to substitute corn use with other non-GMO grains

Mar soybeans up 17 @ 15.20
Soybeans and both soy products are trading higher this morning as the uptrend resumes thanks to a week of good exports
Soybean net sales for 22/23 were 42.1 mb and were up 16% from the previous week and 53% from the prior 4-week average
China bought 129,000 mt for 23/24 and shipments of 69.8 mb were above the 25.3 mb needed weekly to meet the USDA’s estimates
Private exporters reported sales of 106,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China for the 22/23 marketing year

Like what you’re reading?

Mar Chi wheat up 13 @ 7.54, Mar KC up 24 @ 8.67, & Mar MNPLS up 11 @ 9.20
Wheat is also trading higher thanks to better-than-expected export sales, which have been sorely lacking as Russia and Ukraine dominated the market
Wheat net sales last week were 18.4 mb for 22/23 and were up 6% from last week and 84% from the previous week
Shipments were only 9.7 mb and were below the 16.1 mb needed weekly to arrive at the USDA’s estimate of 775 mb

Feb LC down 0.550 @ 157.050 & Mar FC down 0.725 @ 183.025
Live cattle and feeder cattle are lower as boxed beef fell yet again and higher corn pressures feeders
December Cold Storage showed total beef in storage at 544.0 billion pounds and 7% above a year ago while inventory increased 4% from November on strong slaughter
Beef net sales were reported at 25,100 mt for 2023 with exports at 15,600 mt
Choice cuts down 1.36 and select down 0.59
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/25: up 0.24 @ 177.77

Feb hogs down 0.150 @ 76.675 & Feb pork cutout down 0.475 @ 84.050
Hogs are trading lower as they struggle to find support amid falling cutouts which were lower by 0.95, but cash that moved slightly higher
Hog weights decreased 0.9 pounds last week and are 2.4 pounds below a year ago showing that markets are current, but packers are have no trouble acquiring the animals
The December Cold Storage showed total pork inventory up 16% from a year ago at 458.1 million pounds and belly stocks were up 66% at 63.1 million pounds
National Direct Afternoon report rose 1.10
Hog slaughter projected at 489K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/26: down 0.54 @ 72.11

Amanda Brill