TFM Midday Update 01-30-2023


  • Mar corn down 1 @ 6.82
  • Ukraine’s Grain Association said that their corn production will not be over 18 mmt in 2023 because of the war
  • Private exporters reported sales of 112,000 mt of corn for delivery to Japan during the 22/23 marketing year
  • Argentina received more rain over the weekend which may help to stabilize the crop
  • Argentina corn is rated 12% good to excellent
  • The Fed is expected to issue another 25 basis point interest rate increase this week


  • Mar soybeans up 20 @ 15.29
  • March soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $20.23 per bushel
  • China is back from their week-long holiday and may begin new purchases of energy, metals, and possibly soybeans
  • Soybean oil is being led higher by palm oil (which is at 3-week highs)
  • After the recent rains in Argentina, the country may return to a drier pattern over the next couple weeks
  • Argentina soybeans are rated 7% good to excellent

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  • Mar Chi wheat up 3 @ 7.53Mar KC up 8 @ 8.77Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 9.26
  • Ukraine’s Grain Association said that their wheat production will not be over 16 mmt in 2023 because of the war
  • Last week March KC wheat posted a weekly bullish reversal and is trading higher this morning
  • Kansas and Nebraska are getting well below freezing temperatures, threatening the HRW crop with winterkill
  • As of January 24, funds were reported to be short 48,000 contracts of Chi wheat
  • Some reports suggest that Putin is preparing a new offensive as the war escalates in Ukraine


  • Feb LC up 1.600 @ 158.325 & Mar FC up 0.850 @ 184.325
  • Last week cash was steady in the north to $1 higher in the south
  • Feedlots may hold out for higher cash again this week as packers need cattle to keep up slaughter pace
  • Cattle inventory report will be released tomorrow with many anticipating a lower cow herd and lower calf crop
  • Boxed beef has been falling over the past couple weeks
  • Choice cuts down 0.99 and select down 0.94
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/27: up 0.77 at 179.57


  • Feb hogs down 0.375 @ 75.500 & Feb pork cutout down 0.600 @ 83.075
  • Feb hog futures continue to show weakness as they remain at a premium to the index
  • Slaughter pace is higher than a year ago
  • Funds are net short 5,240 futures contracts after selling 14,130 contracts
  • February futures are still quite oversold
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.30
  • Hog slaughter projected at 488K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/30: up 0.12 @ 72.64


Brandon Doherty

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