TFM Midday Update 01-31-2023


  • Mar corn up 2 @ 6.86
  • Corn inspections at 20.8 mb brought the 22/23 total inspections to 474 mb
  • The market has concerns about Argentina weather, which looks like it could revert back to a dry pattern
  • Rains in central and northern Brazil are slowing the soybean harvest, but also causing concern about corn plantings
  • Both Ukraine and Brazil corn offers remain cheaper than US
  • Brazil’s larger second crop (safrinha) corn is said to be 5% planted


  • Mar soybeans up 1 @ 15.36
  • Soybean inspections at 68.2 mb brought the 22/23 total inspections to 1322 mb
  • March soybean meal yesterday hit a new contract high of 488.70
  • China’s March soybeans hit a 7-month high
  • Argentina crush pace is well below what the USDA is forecasting for their annual crush
  • Brazil is having logistic issues in getting beans to port
  • Brazil’s soybean harvest is 5% complete, but that is about half of last year’s pace


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  • Mar Chi wheat up 10 @ 7.62Mar KC up 5 @ 8.79 & Mar MNPLS up 5 @ 9.26
  • Wheat inspections at 16.4 mb brought the 22/23 total inspections to 486 mb
  • Funds are net short 73,802 contracts of Chi wheat (equivalent to 369 mb, which is more than the US produced in 2022)
  • Winterkill is still a concern for some HRW wheat areas
  • Egypt’s GASC is said to be tendering for wheat
  • Chances for precipitation in the US southwestern plains on the 6-14 day forecast


  • Feb LC down 0.025 @ 158.725 Mar FC up 1.375 @ 185.300
  • Live cattle contracts, April forward, made new contract highs yesterday
  • Cattle Inventory report will be out this afternoon – expected to be bullish
  • Pre-report expectations: beef herd down 4.2% and calf crop down 2.8%
  • Talk that cash may be no better than steady this week
  • Choice cuts up 0.34 and select up 0.98
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/30: up 0.31 @ 179.88


  • Feb hogs down 0.225 @ 74.925 & Feb pork cutout UNCH @ 82.925
  • February futures continue to converge with cash
  • Hogs are oversold and funds are net short – this could lead to short covering
  • Strong slaughter pace without difficulty obtaining hogs is keeping packers less aggressive
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.30
  • Hog slaughter projected at 491K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/31: up 0.07 @ 72.71


Brandon Doherty

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