TFM Midday Update 02-02-2022


  • Mar corn down 9 @ 6.26
  • Ethanol production is running 13% above the USDA’s goal
  • Lower South American crops may increase US corn export demand
  • March crude oil hit almost $90 per barrel
  • Some analysts are lowering Argentina’s corn production estimates to 43-46 mmt (down from USDA’s 54 mmt)


  • Mar soybeans up 9 @ 15.38
  • Private exporters reported sales of 380,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 21/22 marketing year
  • Despite being on holiday, China has made purchases of US new crop soybeans the past two days
  • South American farmers are not selling, in part due to the higher Brazilian real


  • Mar wheat down 9 @ 7.60, Mar KC down 10 @ 7.76Mar MNPLS up 3 @ 9.18
  • Russia / Ukraine tensions have eased for now, but troops remain on the border
  • Paris milling futures are lower at midday
  • On the February 9th USDA report, US wheat exports could be lowered and carryout increased (due to slow export pace)
  • La Nina may stick around until US summer which may add to dry conditions in the southern Plains


  • Feb LC up 0.725 @ 141.025 & Mar FC up 2.450 @ 166.100
  • Cattle Inventory report was friendly with the lowest inventory in seven years – this may be more impactful long term
  • Live cattle established new contract highs yesterday
  • Feedlots want to move cattle due to rising grain prices
  • Choice cuts down 4.96 and select down 3.05
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/1: up 0.33 @ 158.77


  • Feb hogs down 0.300 @ 87.850 & Feb pork cutout down 0.625 @ 97.000
  • April hogs made new highs, likely keeping traders interested in buying
  • Packers have become more aggressive due to strong demand and increasing slaughter
  • Cash and cutout prices were not released yesterday due to packer submission problems
  • Futures remain overbought and due for a correction
  • Hog slaughter projected at 440K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/2: up 0.99 @ 83.14


John Heinberg

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates