TFM Midday Update 02-03-2023


  • Mar corn down 1 @ 6.74
  • Corn is trading either side of unchanged today as improvements in Argentinian crop ratings pressure prices
  • April temperatures could play a key role in determining summer US weather
  • US Ag Attaché in Brazil expects their corn crop could be 8% larger than last year at 125.5 mmt
  • The EIA said US ethanol production increased by 1.5% last week to 1.028 million barrels per day
  • The Fed issued a 0.25% interest rate increase and said more rate hikes are a possibility until they reach 2% inflation


  • Mar soybeans down 5 @ 15.30
  • Soybeans are lower as Argentina’s crop rating rose from 7% good to excellent to 12% thanks to recent rains
  • US Energy Department reported higher inventories of crude, gasoline, and low sulfur distillates
  • Argentina’s crush rate to date is lower than what the USDA is forecasting
  • US Ag Attaché in Argentina is estimating their soybean crop at 36 mmt (down 9.5 from the USDA estimate)
  • Crop scouts in Brazil are projecting a record large 153 mmt soybean crop


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  • Mar Chi wheat down 8 @ 7.53Mar KC down 9 @ 8.72, & Mar MNPLS down 8 @ 9.17
  • Wheat is moving lower as chances for rain in the US plains increases over the next two weeks
  • USDA reported an increase of 5 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and 1.2 mb for 23/24
  • The US continues to see icy storms in the southern part of the country
  • HRW areas are mostly dry, but the American weather model shows up to 1.5 inches of rain next week in some of these areas (but the European model is in conflict with no rain)
  • US wheat export commitments are still down 6% from last year


  • Apr LC up 0.025 @ 163.850 & Mar FC up 0.275 @ 186.200
  • Live cattle are trading relatively unchanged as significant cash business is delayed due to another standoff between producers and packers, while feeders are higher
  • Cash did not trade yesterday
  • Packers need cattle, which may result in higher cash soon
  • Concern over consumer demand, as boxed beef has been trending down
  • Choice cuts up 0.03 and select up 0.88
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/2: up 0.53 @ 180.90


  • Apr hogs up 0.400 @ 86.400 & Apr pork cutout up 0.200 @ 93.350
  • Hogs are treading higher thanks to a boost in the cutout of 2.55 which has gotten traders excited
  • Front month hogs may have finally found a bottom, trading over 1 dollar higher at midday
  • Feb hogs remain oversold but are also approaching expiration
  • Futures remain at a significant premium to the index which is a concern
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell by 0.10
  • Hog slaughter projected at 486K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/3: up 0.34 @ 72.85


Amanda Brill

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