TFM Midday Update 02-03-2025

CORN

  • Corn futures are higher at midday after Mexico’s president announced a one-month pause on tariffs following discussions with President Trump. As part of the agreement, Mexico has committed to increasing border security.
  • Corn export inspections remained strong last week, nearly matching the previous week’s levels. Year-to-date, corn export inspections are running 33% ahead of last year.
  • Managed money funds hold a significant long position in the corn market, with over 350,000 contracts as of last Tuesday. This large position presents a risk, as any signs of technical weakness could trigger rapid fund liquidation.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybean futures are sharply higher at midday, rallying back to overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average.
  • U.S. soybean export inspections rebounded last week but remain seasonally weak. Year-to-date, soybean export inspections are up 16% compared to last year.
  • Weather outlooks show a drier stretch over the next seven days, which should improve harvest progress in northern and central Brazil. Meanwhile, portions of Argentina are expected to receive beneficial moisture.

WHEAT

  • Wheat futures are following other grains higher at midday after the announcement of the tariff pause with Mexico.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index is higher at midday but well off of its overnight lows. The dollar is working on its fifth day in a row higher.
  • A lack of snow cover in Russia and the U.S. Southern Plains raises concerns over potential winterkill if future cold snaps occur.

Author

Keegan Madigan

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